Weekly Market Recap – August 21, 2020

In the Markets

The homebuilding sector is emerging as one of the few strongholds in an economy battered by the pandemic. Housing starts increased by 22.6%, the largest gain since October 2016. Apple became the first US company to reach a $2 trillion valuation. New jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 1.1 million after falling below 1 million the week before. Joe Biden accepted the Democratic presidential nomination on Thursday night

Equities investors kept the ball rolling as the S&P500 hit a new all-time high. The Friday close of 3,397.16 was up 24.31 (+0.7%) for the week, and 5.1% is its year-to-date gain. The star performer, however, was the NASDAQ Composite. Its new record close of 11,311.08 was up 292.50 for the week (+2.7%), taking it up 26.1% for the year. Statistically, the DJIA was unchanged for the week (0.00%), with its mere 0.69 point decline resulting from closing at 27,930.33 on Friday. The Dow’s move in 2020 now stands as a modest 2.1% drop. The Russell 2000 slipped, losing 1.97 points (-1.6%), settling at 124.56 on the close, which is off 6.5% for the year. CBOE’s VIX ticked higher for a change, up 0.49 points (+2.2%). Its 22.54 settlement reverses course somewhat, as the volatility benchmark had been steadily eroding since mid-June. The US Dollar Index also bounced up this week, having been in a retreat for nearly two months. It ended up 0.11 points (+0.9%) with its 93.20 close. S&P’s GSCI rose slightly by 1.19 (+0.1%) to 353.36 on Friday.

Precious metals were mixed: silver outshined gold, as did palladium to platinum. Silver futures rallied 78.8¢ (+3.0%) ending the week at $26.877 per ounce. December gold backed off further from the $2,000 handle, easing $2.80 (-0.1%) with a final price of $1,947.00 at week’s end. September palladium advanced $36.50 (+1.7%) to $2,180.30 and platinum moved lower by $33.00 (-3.4%) to $926.10/oz. The base metals we cover in this recap both firmed, as CME copper added 5.85¢ (+2.0%) settling at $2.9175 per pound and LME aluminum ended the week at $1,765.00/ton, a gain of $19.00 (+1.1%).

Crude oil prices have softened as OPEC members are adhering to the agreed-upon production cuts. Petroleum futures ended the week down from the prior Friday. October WTI closed at $42.34, which was off $0.97 (-2.2%). ICE Brent eased 1.0%, losing $0.45 to settle at $44.35 per barrel. Refined products were mixed, with heating oil sliding 2.87¢ to close at $1.2080 (-2.3%), while RBOB gasoline gained 3.95¢, settling at $1.2841 (+3.2%). The task of the natural gas trader in this market now requires keeping eyes on both storms. In Friday’s session, the September natgas futures contract surged over 15¢ during the course of the day, trading at its highest level since May 5th. The market’s weekly change was an increase of 9.2¢ (+3.9%), ending at $2.448 per MMBtu.

In the agricultural sector, the most actively traded markets increased from the prior Friday’s levels. Wheat settled at $5.27¼ per bushel, up 27¼¢ (+5.5%). Corn, with its $3.40½ close, gained 2½¢ (+0.7%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $9.00¾ after rising 2¢ (+0.2%). Most, but not all, of the softs showed strength, despite the bounce in the US dollar, with coffee up 5.40 to 120.10 (+4.7%) from the previous Friday. Sugar fell, backing off more from the 13¢ level, down 0.27 (-2.1%) to its 12.83 settlement. Cocoa, for the week, added $23 (+0.9%), closing at $2,459 per ton. December cotton advanced 1.43¢ (+2.3%) to its 64.28 final price. Livestock was mixed, as cattle futures sagged 1.680 (-1.5%) to a 108.550 close, while hogs ended at 54.250 for October, rising 1.230 (2.3%). As could be expected by the homebuilding news, lumber futures hit another all-time high. The CME September contract closed the week up $104.40 (+14.4%), settling at $830.90 per 1,000 board feet.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 19th week in a row with a 439.9% net return. Stephan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 236%. Orhan Özcan remained in 3rd with a net return of 213.9%. Yuwen Cao and Stefano Serafini rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 211.3% and 158.2% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley remained in the top spot with a 218.6% return. Jan Smolen held 2nd at 125.3%, with Sergey Shirko finishing the week in 3rd with a net return of 118.2%. Raul Glavan and Patrick Nill rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 111.6% and 72.4% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Adrian Koemel claimed first with a net return of 68.9%, with Jan Smolen following in 2nd at 59.8%. 3rd place is currently held by Stefan Seibert with a net return of 58.8%. M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG and Fernando Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th at 43% and 40.6% respectively.

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition. CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc. The Globe logo is a trademark of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 28, 2020

In the Markets

Initial jobless claims were above 1 million again (1,006,000), and 35 states have been approved for the enhanced unemployment benefit of $300 per week that was authorized by executive order on August 8th. A Category 4 hurricane, Laura, delivered the strongest landfall in Louisiana in 164 years, and brought the highest wind speed ever recorded at Lake Charles (137mph). More than 900,000 are still without electric power and 200,000 without water. Early estimates of Laura’s damages exceed $80 billion. COVID-19 deaths in the US have reached 182,000. On Friday, 50,000 marchers assembled peacefully in Washington DC at the site of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s 1963 “I have a dream” speech. Also on Friday, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank will tolerate higher inflation and focus on keeping the unemployment rate from falling too far. This strategy is intended to create a long period of cheap mortgages and business loans to encourage strong demand and a solid job market.

Equities indices stayed on their upward course all week. The DJIA rose 723.54 (+2.6%), hitting 28,653.87 at Friday’s close; a 110.85 rise in the S&P 500 (+3.3%) took it to a 3,508.01 close, a new all-time high. Likewise, the NASDAQ Composite index staged another record high with its 383.83 up move (+3.4%) to an 11,695.63 final mark. The Russell 2000 firmed, as well, yet is the only one of the indices we cover in our recap that is still negative for the year (-4.9%), having a 2.09 weekly gain to 126.65 (+1.7%). Volatility in equities has ticked up a bit, as the CBOE VIX ended at 22.96 with a 0.42 rise (+1.9%). In the currency market, the dollar weakened, as the spot US Dollar Index ended at its lowest weekly close (92.30) since April 2018. In commodities, the steady uptrend is intact. The S&P GSCI, which settled at 359.94, rose 6.58 (+1.9%) from the prior week. This index is up 49.1% from 241.44, it’s lowest weekly close this year (April 24th).

Metals are ticking higher again. CME copper added 2.7%, closing at $2.9950/lb., its highest weekly close in more than two years. LME three-month aluminum gained 2.0%, ending the week at $1,800.00 per metric ton, the highest it has been since January. In the precious sector, the most active contracts for gold, silver, platinum and palladium all moved on the plus side: gold rose by $27.90 (+1.4%) to $1,974.90, silver increased by 88.3¢, to $27.760 (+3.3%), platinum gained $13.90 (+1.5%) to $940.00 and palladium rose by $17.50 (+0.8%) to $2,197.80 per troy ounce.

On the charts, the petroleum complex maintained the upward trend. NYMEX crude oil prices booked an increase, as September WTI ended Friday’s session at $42.97, which was up 63¢ (+1.5.%). ICE Brent gained 88¢ (+2.0%), settling at $45.81 per barrel. A gallon of heating oil added a mere 0.82¢ to close at $1.2162 (+0.7%), while RBOB spiked because of Hurricane Laura. After the storm weakened as it moved inland, gasoline eased back, gaining 3.14¢ cents for the week, settling at $1.3155 (+2.4%). Disruption from Laura also impacted natural gas: spot natgas futures ended 8.4¢ higher for the week (+3.3%). Friday’s $2.657 settlement was the highest price gas traders had seen since April 2019.

In the agricultural futures sector, the greatest percentage gain of the week was in cocoa, with an 8.9% rally. The confluence of bullish factors included continuing dry weather in West Africa, inventories dropping to a 5½ month low and a large reduction of exports out of Nigeria. December cocoa increased $214 per ton, closing at $2,623 on Friday. ICE’s coffee contract gained 7¢ (+5.8%) to $1.2710/lb., sugar slipped 0.23 (-1.8%) to its 12.60¢/lb. close, and cotton futures improved by 1.2%, as the December contract closed at 65.08¢ per pound. Among the most active Ag markets, the grains and oilseeds were boosted by bullish fundamentals ranging from weather and crop reports along with export data. CBT soybeans shot 49¾¢ higher (+5.5%) to a $9.50½ settlement price. December corn also rallied, gaining 5.5% with its 18¾¢ move to $3.59¼ per bushel. September wheat increased 12¢ (+2.3%) to $5.39¼ at Friday’s close. Livestock markets retreated as October cattle dropped 3.65 (-3.4%) to a 104.90 close, while hogs ended at 53.650, easing 0.600 (-1.1%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 20th week in a row with a 437% net return. Stephan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 237.4%. Yuwen Cao moved up to 3rd with a net return of 225.1%. Orhan Özcan and Stefano Serafini rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 221.3% and 122.3% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley remained in the top spot with a 260.5% return. Jan Smolen held 2nd at 124.4%, with Sergey Shirko finishing the week in 3rd with a net return of 108.1%. Raul Glavan and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 86.3% and 72.4% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Jan Smolen moved up to first with a net return of 71%, with Adrian Koemel following in 2nd at 66.2%. 3rd place is currently held by Samuel Sum with a net return of 61.7%. Stefan Seibert and Fernando Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th at 59.8% and 39.9% respectively.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 28, 2020

In the Markets

US employers added 1.4 million jobs in August, down from 1.7 million in July, lowering the number to 8.4% of workers unemployed. 881,000 new jobless benefit filings were reported on Thursday. The Congressional Budget Office stated that the 2020 budget deficit would be the greatest since the end of World War II as a percentage of the nation’s economy.

The DJIA fell 520.56 (-1.8%), closing at 28,133.31 on Friday. The S&P 500 gave back 81.05 points, ending at 3,426.96 (-2.3%), and the Russell 2000 dropped 2.8% with a 3.51 loss for the week, taking it to 123.14 at the close. Of the four indices we include in this recap, the NASDAQ Composite had its greatest weekly decline in over five months; this week’s sell-off was 382.50 points (-3.3%). The March 20th weekly move was negative 994.71 (-12.6%). For equities traders, the CBOE Volatility Index is one of the market’s vital statistics: it soared 33.2% from the previous Friday as the VIX jumped 7.79 points to 30.75 – the largest one-week incremental move since June 12th when it fell 11.57 (-47.2%).

In base metals, copper has been steadily gaining since its mid-March lows. The fundamental focus is shifting from coronavirus concerns to increasing orders from China and positive reports of electric vehicle production demand. CME copper gained 1.7% last week, closing at $3.0465/lb. (+5.15¢), its first Friday close over $3.00 since June 2018. LME aluminum eased $13.50 to $1,786.50/ton (-0.7%). Precious metals have been retreating with stability recently. Friday’s December gold close was $1,934.39 due to its $40.60 decrease (-2.1%). Silver traders applied a bit more selling pressure, rendering a 3.8% decline of $1.048 to a $26.712 settlement. Percentage-wise, October platinum sank even more for the week (-4.4%), losing $41.80 to end at $898.20 per ounce. Palladium prices behaved contrary to the other precious metals. Traders responded to a record level of physical CME palladium deliveries for September and that contract gained $11.70 (+0.5%) to $2,343.20 per ounce.

Oil prices hit their lowest levels since early June as WTI ended Friday’s session at $39.77, down $3.20 (-7.4%). In a similar move, ICE Brent declined 6.9%, losing $3.15 to settle at $42.66 per barrel. Refined products also slipped. October heating oil lost 8.88¢ cents to close at $1.1515 (-7.2%), while RBOB gasoline lost 6.93¢, settling at $1.1772 (-5.6%). Natural gas softened a bit to end the week at $2.588 per MMBtu. Giving back 6.9¢, the percentage move was a 2.6% loss since the prior Friday.

Across the board in the agricultural commodity markets, the increases marginally outweighed the decreases. Wheat settled at $5.50¼ per bushel, up 1½¢ (+0.3%). Corn, with its $3.58 close, lost 1¼¢ (-0.3%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $9.68 after rising 17½¢ (+1.8%). ICE US coffee jumped 7.65 to 134.00 (+6.1%). Cocoa, for the week, dropped $28 (-1.1%), closing at $2,595 per ton. Sugar took a corrective dip below the 12¢ level, falling 67 ticks (-5.30%) to its 11.93 settlement. December cotton eased 0.09¢ (-0.1%) to its 64.99 closing price. Livestock was mixed, as cattle futures faded by 0.45 (-0.5%) to a 104.450 final print, while hogs had a robust 6.175 rally (+11.5%) ending the week at 59.825 for the October contract.

The economics of illiquidity have hit the CME lumber futures market. The November contract, having tripled in price since its pandemic low in April, went into a tailspin during the week. Lumber open interest ranges in the 4,000-5,000 level. Lately, trading volumes have fluctuated between several hundred to several thousand lots per day. Prices plunged throughout the week, losing $125 per 1,000 board-feet (-16.3%), ending with a $641.50 final value. Year-to-date, the increase is 60.5%. Compared to the other instruments we cover in this recap, lumber is only in second place, out-ranked by the VIX, which is up 123.1% for the year.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 21st week in a row with a 420.3% net return. Stephan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 228.6%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 221%. Orhan Özcan and Evgeny Kartashov rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 168.4% and 165.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley remained in the top spot with a 213.4% return. Jan Smolen held 2nd at 126.6%, with Raul Glavan claiming 3rd with a net return of 111.1%. Sergey Shirko and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 98.7% and 73.2% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Samuel Sum climbed up to first with a net return of 164.6%, with Jan Smolen following in 2nd at 78.5%. 3rd place is currently held by Adrian Koemel with a net return of 62.5%. Stefan Seibert and Fernando Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th at 55.5% and 33.6% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – September 4, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – September 11, 2020

In the Markets

The unemployment claims number held steady at 884,000, unchanged from the revised figure for the previous week, which is a sign that the US recovery might be losing steam. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the cost of goods and services rose sharply for the third month in a row. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4%, after rising 0.6% in July.

The DJIA retreated 467.67 (-1.7%), closing at 27,665.64 on Friday. The S&P 500 gave back 85.99 points, ending at 3,340.97 (-2.5%), and the Russell 2000 marked a 2.6% drop, down 3.16 for the week to 119.98 at the close. Of the indices we include in this recap, the NASDAQ Composite performed the worst, likely stemming from liquidation in tech sector stocks. For the week, the index lost 459.58 points (-4.1%) ending at 9,014.56 on Friday, though it still leads the others on a year-to-date basis (+21.0%). Volatility ebbed notably as the CBOE VIX declined 3.88 (-12.6%) with its 26.87 final value. The Dollar Index basket ticked slightly higher gaining 0.24 (+0.3%) to its 93.27 settlement. Commodity prices embedded in the S&P GSCI caused the index to fall for the second week in a row, after a four-month rally. Friday’s close of 341.05 was down 6.05 (-1.7%) from the prior week.

CME December copper eased 0.7% last week, closing at $3.0395/lb. LME Aluminum softened to $1,771.50/ton (-0.8%). Precious metals have been more stable in recent weeks, without any abrupt swings. Friday’s December gold close was $1,947.90 from a $13.60 gain (+0.7%). Silver had a similar small gain, a 0.5% increase of 14.5¢ to a $26.857 settlement for December. Palladium dropped $12.40 to $2,330.80 (-0.5%). Chart-wise, the precious metals are moving sideways with a shallow downward drift. Platinum’s pattern is out of sync with the others. Friday’s October platinum close of $939.60 was a $41.40 advance (+4.6%).

Rising inventories in the global petroleum market has permeated oil futures trading, evidenced by the fading demand bounce. NYMEX October WTI traded at levels not seen since mid June, ending Friday’s session at $37.33, down $2.44 (-6.1%). In a similar move, front-month ICE Brent declined 6.6%, losing $2.83 to settle at $39.83 per barrel. Refined products slumped, as well. October heating oil lost 6.19¢ to close at $1.0896 (-5.4%), while RBOB gasoline lost 8.23¢, settling at $1.0949 (-7.0%). Natural gas caved 12.3% (down 31.9¢) as cooler temps prevailed in the forecasts. The closing bell left the October contract at $2.269 per MMBtu, the lowest end-of-week price since July 31st.

The agricultural sector markets were uneventful last week except for one product: pork. Reports that African swine fever in Germany, Europe’s largest exporter of pork products, quickly sparked a big jump in CME lean hog futures. Expectations that China would flood the US market with large purchase orders took October hogs up 6.750 points (+11.3%) for the week to 66.575, the highest level since late February and early March, as the pandemic was causing havoc in the meatpacking industry. Unsurprisingly, cattle was not impacted by this news; October cattle futures improved a mere 1.06 (+1.0%) to 105.83 at Friday’s close. Soybeans rose 28¢ last week (+2.9%) to close at $9.96 per bushel. Corn gained 10½¢ (+2.9%) to a $3.68½ settlement price. Wheat lost 8¼¢ (-1.5%) ending at $5.42 for the week. In the ICE softs, coffee fell 1.55 (-1.2%) to settle at $1.3245 per pound. Sugar was practically unchanged (-0.1%) losing 0.01¢ to close at 11.92¢ per pound. Cocoa decreased, ending Friday’s session at 2,548 (-1.8%) from its 47-point drop. Cotton receded 0.18 (-0.3%) to 64.81 in the December contract. October milk added 0.32 (+1.7%), closing at 19.21 for the week. Lumber, the previous week’s star performer, has returned to the doldrums by retreating a modest 1.20 (-0.2%), ending the week at $640.40 for November delivery.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 22nd week in a row with a 411.1% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 256.9%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 231.8%. Evgeny Kartashov and Paige Williams rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 136% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley remained in the top spot with a 234.7% return. Jan Smolen held 2nd at 126.6%, with Raul Glavan in 3rd with a net return of 111.6%. Sergey Shirko and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 88.3% and 73.9% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert climbed up to first with a net return of 77.1%, with Adrian Koemel following in 2nd at 73.3%. 3rd place is currently held by Jan Smolen with a net return of 66.3%. Tobias Baerlin and Vontobel of Tirutrade AG finished the week in 4th and 5th at 49.7% and 46.6% respectively.

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Weekly Market Recap – September 18, 2020

In the Markets

Thursday’s Labor Department report stated that initial unemployment benefit claims totaled 790,000 before adjustments for seasonal factors, down from the prior week’s 866,000 tally. It is still four times what it had been before the pandemic led to shutdowns and layoffs back in March. As tech stocks continued taking a drubbing, equities indices struggled all week and closed marginally lower on Friday. The DJIA fell a fractional 8.22 (-0.03%), going out at 27,657.42: statistically unchanged. There was a 21.5 loss for the S&P 500 (-0.6%) closing at 3,319.47 for a six week low. Likewise, the NASDAQ Composite index followed suit, sagging 0.6% (-60.27) to its 10,793.28 final price. Holding its own, the Russell 2000 firmed 2.6%, canceling out its 2.6% decrease of the prior week, with its 3.14 rise to 123.12 points. Volatility eased 3.9%, evidenced by the VIX which slipped 1.02 to the 25.83 level. In the currency market, the US Dollar Index ebbed 0.28, with its 0.3% retreat to 92.99 on Friday.

Commodity prices gathered steam from buyers nudging the lion’s share of sectors. The GSCI ended at 358.03, up 5.0%, its highest weekly percentage increase since June 5th (+6.0%). As a group, metals are rising across the board. COMEX copper added 2.5%, closing at $3.1160/lb., its highest in over two years (copper reached $3.40 in June 2018.) LME three-month aluminum gained 1.2%, ending the week at $1,792.50 per metric ton. In the precious metals, only platinum decreased, with its $1.10 weekly reduction (-0.1%) to $938.50/oz. Palladium, on the other hand, jumped $50 (+2.1%) to $2,380.80 where it settled. December futures for gold and silver moved on the plus side: gold rose by $14.20 (+0.7%) to $1,962.10, silver increased by 27.2¢ to $27.129 (+1.0%).

NYMEX crude oil prices booked a hefty advance as October WTI ended Friday’s session at $41.11 by rallying $3.78 (+10.1%), and ICE Brent for November shot up $3.32 (+8.3%) to settle at $43.15 per barrel. Refined products soared higher, as well. Heating oil gained 6.94¢ to close at $1.1590 (+6.4%), while RBOB gasoline gained 14.17¢, settling at $1.2366 (+12.9%). Natural gas is on a downward trajectory with sentiment shifting away from the recent storm hype. Futures have revisited the psychological $2.00 support level. October natgas lost 22.1¢ (-9.7%). Fundamental drivers, such as higher inventories and stagnating LNG export demand have kept the selling pressure on to send the price to $2.048 per MMBtu, the lowest since late July.

In agricultural markets, the most conspicuous blip on the radar was coffee. Arabica plunged 18.95 points (-14.3%). On the ICE, coffee futures ended the week at 113.50 in the Dec. contract. Percentage-wise, this was the contract’s worst weekly performance since 1998. Warehouses in Brazil are full, and trucks are waiting to unload recently harvested coffee beans. Favorable rain has been positive to the crop yield and the repercussions from the pandemic’s related global business shutdowns have impacted consumer demand. In the other ICE softs, the moves were all higher. Sugar spiked 0.85¢ (+7.1%) to its 12.77¢/lb. close, and cocoa gained $93 (+3.6%), settling at $2,641 per metric ton. Cotton futures improved by 1.3%, as the December contract closed at 65.66¢ per pound. At the CME, dairy farmers still have a bull market in milk futures. The weekly price increase was 0.38¢ (+2.0%) to 19.59¢ for October delivery. Cattle rose 1.82 (+1.7%) to 107.350, while hogs traders took a breather after a 24% rally in the first half of the month; October lean hog futures eased 0.1%, closing at 66.500 after a 0.075 loss on the week. The CBT grains and oilseeds are on a roll to the upside. In those products, wheat was the star percentage performer of the week as the Decembers rallied 6.1% with a 33¢ move to $5.75 per bushel. November soybean prices popped high above the $10 handle, ending at $10.43½ with a 47.5¢ gain (+4.8%). December corn advanced 10¢ (+2.7%) to its $3.78½ settlement.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 23rd week in a row with a 397.4% net return. Yuwen Cao reclaimed 2nd with a net return of 300.6%. Stefan Seibert dropped down to 3rd with a net return of 256.3%. Evgeny Kartashov and Brent Carlile rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 137.7% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley remained in the top spot with a 249.2% return. Patrick Nill climbed up to 2nd at 237.4%, with Jan Smolen moving down to 3rd with a net return of 126.2%. Raul Glavan and Sergey Shirko rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 103% and 88.3% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Vontobel of Tirutrade AG climbed up to first with a net return of 109.1%, with Adrian Koemel following in 2nd at 100%. 3rd place is currently held by Stefan Seibert with a net return of 82%. Fernando C. Piñeiro and Tobias Baerlin finished the week in 4th and 5th at 56.2% and 49.7% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – September 18, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – September 25, 2020

In the Markets

Unemployment remains a focal point of the nation’s economic health. The labor department reported that new applications for jobless benefits rose to 870,000 compared to 866,000 the previous week. For August, the unemployment rate was 8.4%, down from nearly 15% in April. Government reports on existing home sales in August came in at 6.00 million (vs. 6.03 million in July), while new home sales were 1.01 million (July’s figure was 900,000). Durable goods orders rose 0.4% (-1.9% in July). Also noteworthy, three-month dollar LIBOR, a key benchmark for lending between banks, fixed at 0.2225%, an all-time record low, surpassing the previous all-time low set in May 2014.

The DJIA decreased 483.48 (-1.7%), closing at 27,173.96 on Friday. The S&P 500 dipped 21.01 points, ending at 3,298.46 (-0.6%), and the Russell 2000 marked a 3.9% drop, down 4.86 for the week to 118.26 at the close. Of the indices we include in this recap, the NASDAQ Composite is having the best year-to-date performance (+21.6%), generally attributed to its tech components. This past week, the index advanced 120.28 points (+1.1%) ending at 10,913.56 on Friday. The CBOE Volatility index closed 26.38, up 2.1%. In global currency markets, the US dollar continues to strengthen as the spot Dollar Index gained 1.7%, hitting its highest weekly close (94.57) since late July. Regarding the commodity segment of the financial markets, the S&P GSCI lost some ground (-2.7%), fading 9.81 to its 348.22 final print of the week.

The metals sector moved south, as gold futures shed $95.80 (-4.9%), ending at $1,866.30 per troy ounce. Silver dove $4.036 (-14.9%) to its $23.093 settlement price, the lowest Friday close in two months. Platinum and palladium suffered selloffs similar to gold and silver. The former fell $96.50 (-10.3%) to its $842.00 close, while the latter dropped to $2,222.20 (-6.7%) with a loss of $158.60 in the December contract. The base metals that we cover in our recap all weakened, as well. Copper gave back 14.5¢ (-4.7%) to close at $2.9710 per pound. LME aluminum for 3-month delivery declined $44.00 dollars per ton, ending at $1,748.50 (-2.5%).

Petroleum supplies are slowly building. For instance, Libya’s oil industry started up again, as COVID-19 had kept it offline for months. Crude oil prices slipped more than a dollar during the week. November WTI closed at $40.25, which was off $1.07 (-2.6%). ICE Brent eased 2.9%, losing $1.23 to settle at $41.92 per barrel. Refined products followed suit, with heating oil losing 3.28¢ to close at $1.1262 (-2.8%), while RBOB gasoline retreated 2.24¢ per gallon, settling at $1.2142 (-1.8%). Natural gas fundamentals keep traders awash in EIA storage surprises, LNG stats, tropical storm stories and cold snap scenarios. All of that resulted in a notable bounce in the October futures, with the weekly movement up 9.1¢ (+4.4%), ending at $2.139 per MMBtu.

The agricultural commodity markets reported in this recap were mixed. Soybeans corrected 41¢ (-3.9%) to close at $10.02½ per bushel. The December corn contract sold off 13¼¢ (-3.5%) to a $3.65¼ settlement price. Wheat tumbled 30¾¢ (-5.3%) ending at $5.44¼ for the week. Over on the ICE US, coffee stopped plunging, and ticked up 0.15 on the week (+0.1%), settling at $1.1365 per pound. Sugar advanced a bit, challenging that 13 hurdle again, closing exactly at 13.00¢, as October added 0.23 points (+1.8%). Cocoa had a $73 setback, settling at $2,568 (-2.8%). Cotton inched ahead 0.29 (+0.4%) to 65.95 in the December contract. Milk was off 71 ticks (-3.6%), closing at 18.88 for the week. Livestock firmed: cattle a fraction, but hogs took the Ag star-of-the week ribbon. October hogs soared 5.250 (+7.9%) to a 71.750 settlement, its highest weekly close in eight months (74.175 on 1/24/2020). Cattle ended at 107.575, with a slight 0.225 gain (+0.2%) for October delivery.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 24th week in a row with a 426.6% net return. Stefan Seibert reclaimed 2nd with a net return of 296.5%. Yuwen Cao dropped down to 3rd with a net return of 252.9%. Evgeny Kartashov and Paige Williams rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 121.5% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill claimed the top spot with a 237.2% return. Raul Glavan moved up to 2nd at 146.4%, with Sergey Shirko at 3rd with a net return of 113.2%. Jan Smolen and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 108.7% and 80.7% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Vontobel of Tirutrade AG held on to first with a net return of 122.8%, with Stefan Seibert moving up to 2nd at 107.7%. 3rd place is currently held by Adrian Koemel with a net return of 81.5%. Wayne Wan and Tobias Baerlin finished the week in 4th and 5th at 76% and 52.4% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – September 25, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – October 2, 2020

In the Markets

On Friday, President Trump was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center after testing positive for COVID-19. Several other people who had attended his Rose Garden gathering the previous Saturday tested positive, as well. On Wednesday, the global total of COVID-19 deaths reportedly surpassed 1 million. 837,000 new jobless benefit claims were submitted the prior week. Personal income for August was reported to be down 2.7%. The September unemployment rate is 7.9%, down from 8.2% reported the previous month. The US economy is facing a new round of corporate layoffs, numbering many thousands, primarily in the travel, entertainment, and hospitality sectors.

This week, our recap includes a few noteworthy quarterly changes, due to the fact that the third quarter ended on Wednesday. For the weekly changes, the DJIA rose 508.85 (+1.9%), closing at 27,682.81 on Friday. The S&P 500 added 49.98 points, ending at 3,348.44 (+1.5%). The NASDAQ Composite closed the week 161.46 higher (+1.5%) at 11,075.02, and the Russell 2000 gained 4.5% with a 5.27 increase for the week, taking it to 123.53 at the close.

The Q3 statistics for these four equities benchmarks were as follows: DJIA +7.6% (Q1 had a drop of 23.2%, Q2 +17.8% and year-to-date is now negative 3.0%). The S&P 500 rose 8.5% in Q3 (Q1 was down 20% and +20.0% in Q2. YTD gain +3.6%). For Q3, the NASDAQ Composite rallied 11.0% (Q1 had slid 14.2% and surged 30.6% in Q2, making its YTD performance +23.4%). The Russell 2000 rose 4.8% in Q3 (its Q1 move had been a crash of 30.8% followed by a 25.1% recovery in Q2, and for 2020 thus far, it is down 7.2%). Volatility came back into stocks last week as CBOE’s VIX rose 1.25 (+4.7%) ending on Friday at 27.63, and the US Dollar Index eased 0.77 (-0.8%) with a 93.80 settlement.

Commodity prices, as reflected in the GSCI, were choppy on a sector-by-sector basis. The index, more heavily weighted towards metals and energy than agricultural products, advanced 7.6%% in Q3, as it rose from 325.48 to 350.17 during the period. In Q1 it plummeted from 436.21 to 255.54 (-41.4%), and its Q2 movement was 255.54 to 325.48 (+27.4%).

As a commodity grouping, the quarterly returns in metals were as positive as those for the stock indices. Q3 percentage gains were as follows: gold firmed 4.0%, silver soared 24.9%, platinum rose 6.2%, palladium increased 18.8%, copper gained 10.6% and aluminum added 10.2% to its end of Q2 price. Energy products were mostly higher in Q3, with the exception of heating oil, due to seasonal factors. WTI futures improved 1.6%, Brent crude followed suit with a 1.3% quarterly rise, heating oil retreated 6.5%, RBOB gasoline rallied 8.7% and natural gas topped the energy futures performance for Q3 with a 10.7% increase.

In the past three months, the agricultural commodities were subject to forces that largely depended on the weather and the double whammy that the pandemic caused on both sides of the supply/demand equation. We will dispense with the quarter-to-quarter changes and stick with the activity of the week. Ag sector was mixed and the percentage movements were all single digit. Wheat settled at $5.73¼ per bushel, up 29¢ (+5.3%). Corn, with its $3.79¾ close, added 14½¢ (+4.0%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $10.20¾ after rising 18¼¢ (+1.8%). ICE US softs mostly weakened, with coffee down 4.70 to 108.95 (-4.1%) from the previous Friday. March sugar inched up 0.04 to 13.55¢ (+0.3%). Cocoa lost $86 (-3.3%) for the week, closing at $2,482 per ton. December cotton eased 0.13¢ (-0.2%) to its 65.82 settlement price. Livestock retreated, as cattle futures pared off a mere 0.300 (-0.3%) to a 111.100 close, while hogs ended at 62.500 for December, losing 1.925 (-3.0%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 25th week in a row with a 419.2% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 316.1%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 240.3%. Evgeny Kartashov and Brent Carlile rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 126.3% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 225.3% net return. Raul Glavan remained in 2nd at 138.3% net return, with Jan Smolen in 3rd with a net return of 117.7%. Sergey Shirko and Nicholas Ridley rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 103.6% and 87% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert moved up to first with a net return of 132.6%, with M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG moving down to 2nd at 97.2% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Adrian Koemel with a net return of 64.4%. Wayne Wan and Fernando C. Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th at 61.7% and 50.7% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – October 2, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – October 9, 2020

In the Markets

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3rd were 840,000 vs. median expectations of 820,000. For the past month, this statistic has been moving within the range between 800,000 and 900,000. The trade balance figure for August was a deficit of $67.1 billion, lower than the $63.4 billion deficit for July. Stock market investors had their best week since mid-summer. The indices we track here traded with steady strength every day, except for late Tuesday, when President Trump messaged that he would not approve any economic stimulus until after the presidential election. Equities took an abrupt dive, as the Dow plunged 500 points in 30 minutes. Markets recovered for the rest of the week as the economic necessity of additional stimulus became apparent. By the week’s end, the benchmark DJIA closed at 28,586.90 (+904.09) racking up a 3.3% rally from the previous Friday; it was the Dow’s highest close in six weeks. The S&P 500 jumped 3.3% for the weekly gain, ending at 3,477.13 (+128.69). Adding 504.92 points, the NASDAQ Composite had a +4.6% up move to 11,579.94 at Friday’s close. The Russell 2000 booked a 6.4% increase of 7.86 points to its 131.39 final print. The CBOE Volatility Index ebbed, ending the week at 25.00. The VIX indicated, with its 2.63 decrease (-9.5%), that trading had become more orderly. In currencies, the US Dollar index fell to 93.06, losing 0.74 (-0.8%).

In commodities, the general uptrend outpaced the stock market, as per S&P’s GSCI, which settled at 360.57 (+6.8%), surging 23.10 from the prior week, its highest Friday close since February 21st (400.53). Currently, the composition of this index is 62% energy futures and 15% metals futures. Both groups rallied across the board. COMEX copper added 10½¢ (+3.5%), closing at $3.0825/lb. LME three-month aluminum gained $73.50 (+4.2%), ending the week at $1,841.50 per metric ton, the highest it has been since March 2019 ($1,951.00). In the precious sector, prices continue to advance. Front-month futures for gold, silver, platinum and palladium all moved to the plus side: gold rose by $18.60 (+1.0%) to $1,926.20, silver increased by $1.079, to $25.108 (+4.5%), platinum gained $2.90 (+0.3%) to $894.30 and palladium jumped $138.20 (+5.9%) to $2,463.20 per troy ounce, its highest Friday settlement since February 21st.

The energy complex percentage increases were even greater than those in the metals. NYMEX crude and product futures have been supported by dollar weakness and repercussions from Hurricane Delta. November WTI ended the week at $40.60 per barrel, a $3.55 increase (+9.6%). Brent added $3.58 (+9.1%), taking it to $42.85 at settlement. RBOB gasoline had a 7.1% increase for the week (+7.97¢ per gallon), printing $1.2032 at the close. Heating oil settled at $1.1933 and added 10.83¢/gallon to its price for the week, soaring 10.00% from the previous Friday. Natural gas hedgers and speculators are also focused on storm-related issues. More than 300,000 people are without power in Louisiana. Tens of thousands of property owners who suffered from Hurricane Laura’s destructiveness six weeks ago were dealt another blow from Delta. November natgas showed a weekly rise of 12.4%, up 30.3¢, closing at $2.741 per MMBtu, 25.5% higher than the contract lows in June.

Rounding out the stronger commodity prices, the agricultural markets were mostly higher, as well. Of the nine Ag products that we regularly include in our recap, only cocoa decreased: December cocoa slipped $50 (-2.0%) to $2,432/ton, as inventory reports from Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, indicated that the pandemic is still a major factor impacting consumer chocolate demand. In the other ICE softs, coffee increased 2.60 (+ 2.4%), settling at $1.1165 per pound. Sugar popped 5.0%, rallying 0.68¢ to close at 14.23¢/pound. Cotton firmed 1.82 (+2.8%) to 67.64 in the December contract. Livestock markets gained as December cattle rose 1.500 (+1.4%) to a 112.600 close, while hogs ended the week with a bang at 67.125, climbing 4.625 (+7.4%). Among the most active markets in this sector, grains and oilseeds all surged to new pandemic-era highs. December wheat shot 20½¢ higher (+3.6%) to a $5.93¾ settlement price. Corn also rallied, gaining 4.0% with its 15¼¢ move to $3.95 per bushel. November soybeans advanced 44¾¢ (+4.4%) to $10.65½ at Friday’s close.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 26th week in a row with a 369% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 352.3%, significantly closing the gap. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 247.4%. Paige Williams and Evgeny Kartashov rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 224.4% and 165.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 243.5% net return. Raul Glavan remained in 2nd at 133.1% net return, with Jan Smolen in 3rd with a net return of 132.9%. Nicholas Ridley and Sergey Shirko rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 130.1% and 93.8% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 154.8%, with M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG in 2nd with a 121.8% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Adrian Koemel with a net return of 65.4%. Tobias Baerlin and Fernando C. Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th with 63% and 53.2% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – October 9, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – October 16, 2020

In the Markets

Coronavirus cases are surging in Europe, and with the weather cooling, the US braces for a new wave of infections. At least nine states are reporting record numbers of new cases, and thirteen states have positivity rates in excess of 10%. The Labor Department reported 898,000 new jobless claims, the highest since mid August. The total number of workers receiving unemployment (federal and state) benefits is 25.3 million. Retail sales for September rose 1.9%, as consumers bought vehicles, clothing and sporting goods. Industrial production was down 0.6%. On Friday, the Treasury Department reported a $3.1 trillion budget deficit for the fiscal year ending September 30th. This gap, as a percentage of economic output, was 16.1%, the largest since 1945, when the US was financing the costs of World War II.

NOAA reported that September 2020 was the warmest September on record since the recording of global temperature began in 1880. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reported that more than 4 million acres of forested land have been destroyed so far this fire season, a greater amount of acreage than the state of Connecticut. The stimulus standoff remains unresolved. Early voting for the national election is breaking records. More than 22 million people have already cast ballots, 19% of the total who voted in 2016.

The DJIA inched up 19.41 (+0.1%), closing at 28,606.31 on Friday. The S&P 500 added a mere 6.68 points, ending at 3,483.81 (+0.2%), and the NASDAQ Composite marked a 0.8% rise, up 91.62 for the week to 11,671.56 at the close. Of the indices we include in this recap, only the Russell 2000 is having a negative year-to-date move, though barely (-1.5%). For the weekly change, it slipped 0.26 points (-0.2%) ending at 131.13 on Friday. The CBOE Volatility index closed at 27.41, up 9.6%. In global currency markets, the US dollar firmed slightly; the spot Dollar Index gained 0.7% (+0.66 points) ending at 93.72 on Friday. In the commodity segment of the financial markets, the S&P GSCI gained only a bit more ground (+0.6%), adding 2.03 to its 362.60 final print of the week, its highest Friday settlement since February 21st.
The metals sector moved mostly lower, as gold futures shed $19.80 (-1.0%), ending at $1,906.40 per troy ounce. Silver decreased $0.703 (-2.8%) to its $24.405 settlement price. Platinum and palladium suffered selloffs, as well. The former fell $25.00 (-2.8%) to its $869.30 close, while the latter dropped to $2,342.30 (-4.9%) with a loss of $120.90 in the December contract. The base metals that we cover in our recap were mixed. Copper eased 1.68¢ (-0.5%) to close at $3.0657 per pound. LME aluminum for 3-month delivery moved to the plus side by $29.00 dollars per ton, ending at $1,870.50 (+1.6%), a 17-month high. Aluminum demand from China has been robust by the transportation, construction and packaging industries.

Crude oil prices nudged a bit higher during the week. November WTI closed at $40.88, which was up 28¢ (+0.7%). ICE Brent was up 0.2%, adding 8¢ to settle at $42.93 per barrel. Refined products took the opposite tack, with heating oil losing 1.42¢ to close at $1.1791 (-1.2%), while RBOB gasoline retreated 3.44¢ per gallon, settling at $1.1688 (-2.9%). Natural gas was higher for the week, up 3.2¢ (+1.2%), ending at $2.773 per MMBtu.
The agricultural commodity markets covered in this recap were mixed. Soybeans corrected 15½ ¢ (-1.5%) to close at $10.50 per bushel. The December corn contract rose 7¢ (+1.8%) to a $4.02 settlement price. Wheat advanced 8½ ¢ (+1.4%) ending at $6.02¼ for the week. On the ICE US, coffee ticked down 4.30 on the week (-3.9%), settling at $1.0725 per pound. Sugar improved again, rising 0.20 (+1.4%) closing at 14.43, the highest end of week value since February 26th. Cocoa had a $71 setback, settling at $2,361 (-2.9%). Cotton keeps marching upward, as it rallied 2.28¢ (+3.4%) to 69.92 in the December contract, its highest end of week close since late January. Livestock prices diverged. Hogs continued making highs as prices firmed again, gaining 2.675 (+4.0%) to a 69.800 settlement, the highest weekly close for the year in the December contract. Cattle ended at 108.625, after a 3.975 dive (-3.5%), possibly attributed to weak beef export reports from the USDA.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert climbed to first with a net return of 347.6%, taking the spot from Michael O’Keeffe who has held the top position for the past 26 weeks and now has a 347.1% net return. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 248.1%. Paige Williams and Evgeny Kartashov rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 209.5% and 165.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 245.6% net return. Raul Glavan remained in 2nd at 154.2% net return, with Jan Smolen in 3rd with a net return of 104.2%. Sergey Shirko and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 93.8% and 81.3% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 148.8%, with M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG in 2nd with a 108.9% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Tobias Baerlin with a net return of 73.7%. Adrian Koemel and Fernando C. Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th with 59.1% and 37.3% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – October 16, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – October 23, 2020

In the Markets

A record one-day high of more than 83,000 US coronavirus cases was reported on Friday. New jobless claims were 787,000 for the reported week, and continuous unemployment benefit claims improved to 23.15 million people, down from 24.2 million. September’s index of leading economic indicators fell to 0.7%, down from 1.4% in August. The index has been in positive territory since June, after plunging in April and May. Existing home sales for September were 6.54 million, compared to 5.98 million for the prior month. Pandemic stimulus talks have failed to make any progress.

The movement in the stock market for the week was minimal. The indices we follow mostly drifted lower during the week, then firmed on Friday. The DJIA closed down 270.74 to 28,335.57 (-0.9%). A similar pattern was followed by the S&P 500 spot index, as it went down 18.42 points to 3,465.39 (down 0.5%). The NASDAQ Composite ended the week at 11,548.28 with a 123.28 setback (-1.1%). Some strength persisted for the Russell 2000, showing an up-move of 0.52 points to 131.65 (+0.4%). A small degree of volatility returned to the option premiums as CBOE’s VIX added 0.14 points to 27.55 for a weekly change of +0.5%. The USDX spot index ended 92.74 for a decline of 0.98 (-1.0% for the week). On a net basis, the commodities in the GSCI also showed a slight reduction, with a final evaluation of 358.76 after shaving off 3.84 points (-1.1%)

In the metals sector, there was a bit of lift in the platinum group. New demand has been reported for platinum and palladium. These two elements have been receiving positive press about their efficient role in fuel cells that are key in the development of green hydrogen energy. January platinum rallied 4.3%, up $37.40 to $906.70; and December palladium rose 2.4%, up $56.30 to $2,398.60/oz. The more actively traded precious metals were mostly lackluster, as December gold declined $1.20/oz. last week, ending at 1,905.20 (-0.1%), while silver gained 1.1%, closing down 27¢ at $24.675/oz. The base metals covered in this recap diverged slightly. Copper firmed 6.33¢ (+2.1%) to close at $3.1290 per pound. LME aluminum for 3-month delivery eased $28.00 dollars per ton, ending at $1,842.50 (-1.5%).

2.99¢, settling at $1.1389 (-2.6%). On Friday, natural gas traders reacted to a warmer climatological outlook for December. This is in spite of the cold snap that is currently affecting the gas consuming regions for the short term. Dec. natgas retreated 7.6¢ (-2.3%), and the closing bell finished the market at $3.195 per MMBtu.

The agricultural products we track here were mixed. Soybeans rallied 33¾¢ (+3.2%) to close at $10.83¾ per bushel. Corn climbed 17¼¢ (+4.3%) to a $4.19¼ settlement price. Wheat advanced 30½¢ (+5.1%) ending at $6.32¾ for the week. In the ICE softs, coffee eased 1.65 points (-1.5%), settling at $1.0560 per pound. Sugar increased 2.0%, gaining 0.29¢ to close at 14.72¢ per pound. Cocoa jumped $118 (+5.0%), ending Friday’s session at $2,479 per ton. Cotton maintained its uptrend, rising 1.37 (+2.0%) to 71.29 in the December contract. Livestock prices fell, as December hogs lost 2.275 (-4.0%) to a 67.025 close, while cattle ended at 103.575 with a 5.050 decline (-4.6%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held onto first with a net return of 345.6%. In second is Michael O’Keeffe who has a 335.3% net return. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 290.1%. Paige Williams and Evgeny Kartashov rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 200.5% and 165.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 259.9% net return. Raul Glavan remained in 2nd at 108.4% net return, with Jan Smolen in 3rd with a net return of 98%. Sergey Shirko and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 93.8% and 81.5% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 143.4%, with M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG in 2nd with a 73.7% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Tobias Baerlin with a net return of 62.6%. Adrian Koemel and Jan Smolen finished the week in 4th and 5th with 58.3% and 45.6% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – October 23, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – August 14, 2020

In the Markets

The US unemployment claims figure came in at less than one million (963,000) for the first time in 21 weeks. Core retail sales rose 1.9%, which was higher than the 1.2% expectation; sales at stores and restaurants have now risen for three straight months after plunging in March and April. On Wednesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that Q2 economic output fell by 20.4% from the first quarter, the worst recession since record keeping began in 1955. This GDP contraction was more than twice the size of the US decline of 9.5% during the same period. Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his choice of Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate.

The DJIA rose 497.54 from the previous week (+1.8%), closing at 27,931.02 on Friday. The S&P 500 added 21.57 points, ending at 3,372.85 (+0.6%), and the Russell 2000 increased 0.5% with a 0.65, taking it to 126.53 at the close. The NASDAQ Composite, for a change, did not make a new all time high during the week, but held its ground with the other equities benchmarks. It’s Friday close of 11,019.30 was due to ticking up only 8.32 (+0.1%). The VIX slipped slightly with a 0.16 decline (-0.7%) ending at 22.05 for the week. The US Dollar Index continued its downtrend, falling 0.30 (-0.3%) to 93.09 on Friday.

On Tuesday, in reaction to Russia’s positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front, safety-minded bondholders began selling, and a spike in Treasury yields followed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed 6 basis points to 0.6407% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 8 basis points to 1.3252%. CME Treasury futures tumbled. The September 30 year T-Bond contract went from 181 to 179 that day, and ended the week at 177-27, which was its lowest weekly close since June 19th (177-09). This kicked off a wave of US dollar strength and liquidation of precious metal positions. The sharp sell-off in gold and silver was exacerbated by margin call selling that resulted in Comex gold futures having the steepest one-day dollar decline since April 15th, 2013. After the abrupt correction, the precious sector recovered in the following days. The week’s metal activity included gold futures losing $78.20 (-3.9%), ending at $1,949.80 per troy ounce. Silver dropped $1.45 (-5.3%) to its $26.089 settlement price. Platinum and palladium, both declined, but not as sharply as gold and silver. The former eased $11.30 (-1.2%) to its $959.10 close, while the latter retreated to $2,143.80 (-1.5%) with a loss of $32.80 in the September contract. The base metals that we cover in our recap were mixed. Copper firmed 6.65¢ (+2.4%) to close at $2.8590 per pound. LME aluminum for 3-month delivery slipped $25.00 dollars per ton, ending at $1,746.00 (-1.4%).

Energy futures climbed across the board by varying degrees for the week. August WTI closed at $42.01 per barrel, a $0.79 increase (+1.9%). Brent added $0.40 (+0.9%), taking it to $44.80 at settlement. RBOB gasoline booked a 3.1% increase (+3.70¢/gallon), printing $1.2446 at the close. Heating oil settled at $1.2367 by adding 1.68¢/gallon to its price, increasing 1.4% from the previous Friday. Natural gas futures ended at $2.356 per MMBtu, the highest end-of-week close in three and a half months. September contracts advanced 11.8cents for the week (+5.3%). The surge on Friday stemmed from higher than normal temperature forecasts for the Western US and Canada. Bulls were also encouraged by statistics on higher export demand and weakening production.

S&P’s GSCI sustained its steady strength, gaining 7.02 (+2.0%) to 352.17 at the close, its highest end-of-week settlement since March 6th (366.59). Rising prices dominated the agricultural sector. Soybeans rallied 31¼¢ last week (+3.6%) to close at $8.98¾ per bushel. Corn climbed 17¼¢ (+5.4%) to a $3.38 settlement price. Wheat increased 4½¢ (+0.9%) ending at $5.00 for the week. In the ICE softs, the Europe vs. US coffee arbitrage is unwinding, as Robusta advanced by 3.7%, while Arabica retreated by 0.6%, settling at $1,445 per metric ton and $1.1470 per pound, respectively. Sugar jumped 3.4%, gaining 0.43¢ to close at 13.10¢/pound. Cocoa slid lower, ending Friday’s session at 2,436 (-4.3%) losing 110 points. Cotton rose 0.49 (+0.8%) to 62.85 in the December contract. Livestock improved with hogs outpacing cattle. October hogs rose 4.0% (+2.045) to a 53.020 close, while cattle ended at 110.230 with a 3.770 increase (3.5%). Milk added 0.65 (+4.0%), closing at 16.88 for the week. The star performer was lumber. Although not in the S&P GSCI, and with minimal futures volume, lumber’s price reached an all time high on Friday, $726.50 per 1,000 board feet, up $78.50 (+12.1%), with an 80.0% increase year-to-date. The COVID-19 era has spawned a building boom in the US, spurred by low interest rates.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 18th week in a row with a 464.4% net return. Stephan Seibert moved up to 2nd with a net return of 241.2%. Orhan Özcan moved to 3rd with a net return of 216.9%. Yuwen Cao and Stefano Serafini rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 210.9% and 178.3% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley remained in the top spot with a 225.3% return. Jan Smolen held 2nd at 122.9%, with Sergey Shirko finishing the week in 3rd with a net return of 118.2%. Raul Glavan and Patrick Nill rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 120.1% and 72.4% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Wayne Wan held first with a net return of 73.3%, with Adrian Koemel following in 2nd at 65.5%. 3rd place is currently held by Stefan Seibert with a net return of 56.2%. Jan Smolen and M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG finished the week in 4th and 5th at 48.9% and 39.2% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – August 14, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – October 23, 2020

In the Markets

In the metals sector, there was a bit of lift in the platinum group. New demand has been reported for platinum and palladium. These two elements have been receiving positive press about their efficient role in fuel cells that are a key in the development of green hydrogen energy. January platinum rallied 4.3%, up $37.40 to $906.70; and December palladium rose 2.4%, up $56.30 to $2,398.60/oz. The more actively traded precious metals were mostly lackluster, as December gold declined $1.20/oz. last week, ending at 1,905.20 (-0.1%), while silver gained 1.1%, closing down 27¢ at $24.675/oz. The base metals covered in this recap diverged slightly. Copper firmed 6.33¢ (+2.1%) to close at $3.1290 per pound. LME aluminum for 3-month delivery eased $28.00 dollars per ton, ending at $1,842.50 (-1.5%).

On the energy charts, the petroleum markets have been in a consolidation pattern for the past seven weeks. NYMEX December WTI traded within a tight range during the week, ending Friday’s session at $39.85, down $1.27 (-3.1%). In a similar move, front-month ICE Brent declined 2.7%, losing $1.16 to settle at $41.77 per barrel. Refined products slumped, as well. November heating oil lost 2.78¢ to close at $1.1513 (-2.4%), while RBOB gasoline slipped
2.99¢, settling at $1.1389 (-2.6%). On Friday, natural gas traders reacted to a warmer climatological outlook for December. This is in spite of the cold snap that is currently affecting the gas consuming regions for the short term. Dec. natgas retreated 7.6¢ (-2.3%), and the closing bell finished the market at $3.195 per MMBtu.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert once again finished in 1st with a net return of 345.6%, with Michael O’Keeffe in 2nd with a 335.3% net return. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 290.1%. Paige Williams and Evgeny Kartashov rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 200.5% and 165.8% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – October 23, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – October 30, 2020

In the Markets

Across the board, stocks registered losses throughout the week. The DJIA plunged 1,833.97 (-6.5%), printing 26,501.60 as its Friday close; there was a 195.43 decrease for the S&P 500 (-5.6%) closing at 3,269.96. NASDAQ’s composite index had a 636.69 down move to 10,911.59 (-5.5%). The Russell 2000 fell with a 7.98 drop to 123.67 (-6.1%). Volatility in equities spiked considerably as CBOE’s VIX ended at 38.02 for a 10.47 rally (+38.0%), the highest weekly close since April 9th (41.67). In currency markets, the dollar strengthened, evidenced by the spot US Dollar Index, which ended up 1.28 (+1.4%), rising to 94.02, its highest weekly close since September 25th.

The direction of the commodity portfolio in the GSCI took a path similar to the stock market, losing 17.99 (-5.0%) to 340.77 at week’s end. Metals, a significant portion of that index, followed suit by retreating. Gold fared best, by not falling as much as the other metals we cover here. The December contract moved only 1.3% lower, settling at $1,879.90 after a $25.30 setback. Silver’s weekly move was down 4.2%, falling by $1.03 to close at $23.646 on Friday. Both platinum and palladium futures dropped, as well: the former closed at $848.40, while the latter ended the week at $2,217.20 per ounce. Their declines were more extensive than those in gold and silver, as platinum’s loss was $58.30 (-6.4%) and palladium gave back $181.40 (-7.6%). The base metals that we watch also slipped. CME copper went out at $3.0475/lb. losing 8.15¢ (-2.6%), while LME aluminum ended the week $56.70 lower (-2.3%) to close at $1,800.00 per metric ton.

In the petroleum sector of energy futures, both hedgers and speculators seem to be heeding the lessons learned from the pandemic’s impact on oil prices six months ago. Now that COVID-19 is resurging in the US and Europe, analyst’s expectations of lower consumer demand have resurfaced. Crude has broken support on the charts: West Texas Intermediate dived $4.28 (-10.7%) to $35.57, the lowest weekly close since late May. The extraordinary sub-zero pricing in April’s crude crash hasn’t been forgotten; North Sea Brent followed the same trajectory, falling $4.29 (-10.3%) to $37.48 per barrel. Heating oil lost 6.55¢ (-5.7%) ending Friday’s session at 1.0858, while RBOB gasoline closed at 1.0519 down 8.70¢ (-7.6%) per gallon. As for the non-petroleum side, natural gas remains in an up-move, boosted this week by record LNG exports. December futures settled at new contract highs of $3.374, gaining 17.9¢ (+5.6%) for the week. Natgas is up 29.6% on a year-to-date basis.

As with most of the commodity prices covered above, agricultural products continued slumping. Wheat settled at $5.98½ per bushel, down 34¼¢ (-5.4%). Corn, with its $3.98½ close, gave back 20¾¢ (-4.9%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $10.56¼, after losing 24¾¢ (-2.3%). ICE US softs weakened, with coffee easing 1.20 to 104.40 (-1.1%) from the previous Friday. March sugar declined 0.36 (-2.4%) to 14.36¢ per pound. Cocoa lost $186 (-7.5%) for the week, closing at $2,293 per ton. December cotton retreated 2.37¢ (-3.3%) to its 68.92 settlement price. Livestock was mixed, as hog futures pared off 1.450 (-2.2%) to a 65.575 close. Of the Ag futures we usually feature in this recap, cattle was the only gainer for the week, its 4.725 (+4.6%) rally took the December contract to a settlement of 108.300 at Friday’s close.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 349.3% net return. Michael O’Keeffe remained in 2nd with a net return of 335.8%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 257.2%. Evgeny Kartashov and Paige Williams rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 131.6% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 248.3% net return. Raul Glavan remained in 2nd at 181.3% net return, with Sergey Shirko in 3rd with a net return of 123.4%. Jan Smolen and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 102.6% and 82.7% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 148.8%, with Adrian Koemel in 2nd with a 78.6% net return. 3rd place is currently held by M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG with a net return of 65.1%. Tobias Baerlin and Fernando C. Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th with 54.8% and 47.8% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – October 30, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – November 6, 2020

In the Markets

Third-quarter GDP growth was a record +33.1% vs. a 31.4% decline in Q2. There were 751,000 new jobless claims reported, compared to 791,000 the previous week, for a total of 22.65 million unemployed workers, down from 23.07 million. Personal income rose 0.9%, compared with the prior month’s 2.5% drop. Consumer spending was up 1.4% vs. the previous 1.0% report. The news cycle wass dominated by both the U.S. presidential election and COVID-19. Friday’s report of new US coronavirus cases was a record: 99,784. The rate of new cases is rising in 40 states, as the pandemic death toll has now surpassed 230,000 nationwide.
Across the board, stocks registered losses throughout the week. The DJIA plunged 1,833.97 (-6.5%), printing 26,501.60 as its Friday close; there was a 195.43 decrease for the S&P 500 (-5.6%) closing at 3,269.96. NASDAQ’s composite index had a 636.69 down move to 10,911.59 (-5.5%). The Russell 2000 fell with a 7.98 drop to 123.67 (-6.1%). Volatility in equities spiked considerably as CBOE’s VIX ended at 38.02 for a 10.47 rally (+38.0%), the highest weekly close since April 9th (41.67). In currency markets, the dollar strengthened, evidenced by the spot US Dollar Index, which ended up 1.28 (+1.4%), rising to 94.02, its highest weekly close since September 25th.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 362.1% net return. Michael O’Keeffe remained in 2nd with a net return of 288.6%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 244.6%. Evgeny Kartashov and Fernando C. Piñeiro rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 146.5% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 248.3% net return. Sergey Shirko moved up to 2nd at 157.7% net return, with Nicholas Ridley in 3rd with a net return of 149.5%. Jan Smolen and Raul Glavan rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 127.2% and 103.9% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 160.1%, with Cristian Franchi in 2nd with a 77.3% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Adrian Koemel with a net return of 73.8%. Fernando C. Piñeiro and Jan Smolen finished the week in 4th and 5th with 73.8% and 69.5% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – November 6, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – November 13, 2020

In the Markets

Economic news for the week ending November 13th indicated a slight improvement in the employment statistics. The number is now 21.16 million unemployed compared with 21.53 million the previous week. New jobless claims came in at 709,000 vs. 751,000 from a week earlier. Consumer prices were unchanged for October (0.0%), after being 0.2% higher for September. The Producer Price Index rose 0.3%; September’s figure was 0.4% higher. The Treasury Department’s Federal budget report showed that the first month of the new fiscal year saw the deficit rise to $285 billion, more than double the prior month’s level ($100 billion) and up 37% from October 2019. The swelling budget gap is a result of expenditures intended to mitigate the effects of the coronavirus, coupled with plunging tax revenues. US coronavirus cases rose in all 50 states for the first time. On Friday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, 184,514 Americans were reported infected, a record number for a single day.

Stock markets were buoyant again during the week. The promise of COVID-19 vaccine development on several fronts eclipsed the election’s aftermath for many investors. The DJIA rose 1,156.50 (+4.1%), to 29,479.90, an all-time high for an end-of-week close. Similarly, the S&P 500 increased 75.71 (+2.2%), ending the week at 3,585.15. Likewise, the Russell 2000 index staged another record high with its 8.07 up move (+6.1%) to a 140.14 final mark. The NASDAQ Composite, although ending on Friday down 65.94 (-0.6%) with its 11,829.29 settlement, registered an all-time high on Monday, when it hit 12,108.07 during the first hour of trading. With its year-to-date performance of +31.8%, the NASDAQ remains the leader of the pack among the benchmarks we cover here: S&P +11.0%, DJIA +3.3% and Russell 2000 +5.2%. Volatility in equities has ticked a bit lower, as the CBOE VIX ended at 23.10 with a 1.76 reduction (-7.1%); the lowest level since late August. In the currency market, the dollar was firmer as the spot US Dollar Index moved to 92.72, up 0.5%. The commodity barometer we track here, S&P’s GSCI, settled at 364.49, rising 14.88 (+4.3%) from the prior week.

Precious metals weakened, while industrial metals were in the plus column. In the precious sector, the most active contracts for gold, silver, platinum and palladium moved as follows: gold decreased by $65.50 (-3.4%) to $1,886.20, silver lost 8.87¢, to $24.775 (-3.5%), platinum eased $3.40 (-0.4%) to $896.00 and palladium retreated $170.30 (-6.8%) to $2,329.70 per troy ounce. In the base metals we monitor, CME copper added 2.40¢ (+0.8%), closing at $3.1780/lb. while LME three-month aluminum gained $30.50 (+1.6%), ending the week at $1,932, the highest it has been since December 2018, when it traded at $1,996 per metric ton.

On the charts, the petroleum complex gained upward momentum. NYMEX crude oil prices booked an increase, as December WTI ended Friday’s session at $40.13, which was up $2.99 (+8.1.%). ICE Brent gained $3.33 (+8.4%), settling at $42.78 per barrel. The per-gallon price for heating oil added 6.16¢ to close at $1.2042 (+5.4%), while RBOB gasoline gained 4.10¢ cents for the week, settling at $1.1254 (+3.8%). Colder forecasts in the natural gas heating-demand regions boosted January futures 10.7¢ higher for the week (+3.7%). Friday’s settlement was $2.995 per MMBtu.

In the agricultural commodity markets, the increases outweighed the decreases across the board. Corn, with its $4.10½ close, advanced 3¾¢ (+0.9%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $11.48 after rising 46½¢ (+4.2%). Wheat settled at $5.93½ per bushel, down 8½¢ (-1.4%). ICE US coffee added 2.30 to 109.25 (+2.2%). Cocoa, for the week, firmed $32 (+1.4%), closing at $2,365 per ton. Sugar kept rising, gaining 0.05 (+0.3%) to its 14.96 settlement. December cotton slipped 0.16¢ (-0.2%) to its 68.46 closing price. Livestock was mixed, as cattle futures rose 1.275 (+1.25%) to a 109.925 final print, while hogs coasted sideways (0.0%) ending the week at 64.900 for the December contract.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 352.4% net return. Michael O’Keeffe remained in 2nd with a net return of 285.4%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 233.4%. Evgeny Kartashov and Brent Carlile rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 149.4% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 248.3% net return. Raul Glavan moved up to 2nd with a 161.8% net return, with Sergey Shirko in 3rd with a net return of 157.7%. Jan Smolen and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 127.4% and 85.9% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 143.8%, with Cristian Franchi in 2nd with a 104.3% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Patrick Nill with a net return of 102.3%. Fernando C. Piñeiro and Adrian Koemel finished the week in 4th and 5th with 78.2% and 71.9% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – November 13, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – November 20, 2020

In the Markets

The retail sales report for October increased by 0.3%, down from September’s 1.6%.

Industrial production rose 1.1% compared to the prior month (-0.4%). Nationwide unemployment figures indicate that the jobless total eased to 20.32 million from the previous week’s 21.16 million. 742,000 of those were new claims, compared with 711,000 the week before. The monthly report of the index of leading economic indicators was unchanged at 0.7%. Cumulative COVID-19 fatalities are nearing 254,000 in the US, the highest death toll among all countries, with 80,000 Americans now hospitalized with the virus, an all-time high.

The equities benchmarks we cover in this recap were mixed. The DJIA was off slightly, decreasing 27.61 (-0.8%), going out at 29,263.75. Likewise, there was a 216.55 loss for the S&P 500 (-0.7%), ending at 3,557.54 for the week. An upward marginal change (+0.2%) for the NASDAQ Composite, with a 25.68 point increase, took the index to 11,854.97, but the most noteworthy performance was in the Russell 2000. Comprised of small cap companies, this marker made an all time high of 145.11 on Wednesday, and had its highest end-of-week close, 143.24 (+3.10 points, +2.2%). Volatility crept 2.6% higher, evidenced by the VIX, which gained 0.60 to close at the 23.70 level. In the currency market, the US Dollar Index ebbed 0.33, with its 0.4% retreat to 92.39 on Friday. In the commodity sector, the component products embodied in the GSCI moved higher. The basket advanced 9.37 (+2.6%) to 373.86 at week’s end.

Platinum was the percentage leader-of-the-week in the metals we spotlight here. As we reported a few weeks back, there is a platinum supply deficit that many analysts attribute to the promises of “green hydrogen” technology. January futures gained $61.20 (+6.6%) ending at $957.20 per ounce. Platinum’s expensive sister, palladium, although a catalytic candidate viable for green hydrogen, is not cost-effective. Palladium lost $6.40 (-0.3%) slipping to $2,323.30 on Friday. The other precious metals followed suit: December gold futures dipped $13.80 (-0.7%) to $1,872.40, silver gave back 41.2¢ to $24.363 (-1.7%). Base metals kept to their uptrends, both copper and aluminum scoring new highs for the year. The former added 11.3¢ (+3.6%) to close at $3.2910 per pound, and the latter rallied $61 (+3.2%), going out at $1,993 per metric ton.

Oil was dominated by OPEC’s technical meeting that concluded on Monday with supporting news about extending its current level of production cuts. This shaped the price movement for petroleum and its products. NYMEX crude oil prices booked a solid advance as December WTI ended Friday’s session at $42.15 by firming $2.02 (+5.0), and ICE Brent for January increased $2.18 (+5.1%) to settle at $44.96 per barrel. Refined products traded higher, as well. Heating oil gained 8.21¢ to close at $1.2863 (+6.8%), while RBOB gasoline rose 4.98¢, settling at $1.1752 (+4.4%). With the end of hurricane season in sight, natural gas is rapidly losing ground. The warmer-than-normal temperature outlook for the eastern half of the US has made a free fall pattern on the price charts. Since making contract highs only three weeks ago ($3.396 on October 30th), December natural gas futures have plummeted 22%. In the past week, natgas lost 34.5¢ (-11.5%), ending at $2.650 per MMBtu, its lowest Friday close since late March.

The lion’s share of the food product prices we track were higher for the week. Only livestock moved lower as December cattle dropped 1.825 (-1.7%) to a 108.100 close, while December hogs slid 0.775 (-1.2%), ending at 64.125¢ per pound. In the Ag futures sector, the greatest percentage gain of the week was in cocoa, with a 14.7% rally. Reportedly, Hershey purchased ICE inventories of cocoa in order to circumvent a $400 per ton premium that Ivory Coast and Ghana had added to benefit cocoa bean farmers. Futures increased $347 per ton, closing at $2,712 on Friday, a nine-month high. ICE’s coffee contract gained 5.85¢ (+5.2%) to $1.805/lb., sugar rose 0.25 (+1.7%) to its 15.21¢/lb. close, and cotton futures improved by 3.6%, as the December contract closed at 72.96¢ per pound. Grains and oilseeds in the Chicago market moved as follows: CBT soybeans climbed 33¢ higher (+2.9%) to an $11.81 settlement price. December corn also rallied, gaining 3.1% with its 12¾¢ move to $4.23¼ per bushel. December wheat’s settlement of $5.93¼ was statistically unchanged (0.0%), at only ¼¢ below the previous end-of-week close.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 331.5% net return. Michael O’Keeffe remained in 2nd with a net return of 277.7%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 225.1%. Evgeny Kartashov and Brent Carlile rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 156.5% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 248.3% net return. Sergey Shirko moved up to 2nd with a 157.7% net return, with Raul Glavan in 3rd with a net return of 142.5%. Jan Smolen and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 126.5% and 89.1% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 136.3%, with Patrick Nill in 2nd with a 103.2% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Cristian Franchi with a net return of 93.1%. Fernando C. Piñeiro and Adrian Koemel finished the week in 4th and 5th with 80.9% and 72.4% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – November 20, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – November 27, 2020

In the Markets

After a month of new jobless claims decreasing, the tally reversed direction with 778,000 requests for unemployment benefits. The previous week had 748,000. The total number of Americans who continue to be out of work is now 20.45 million (vs. 20.32 million.) Economic data releases and indices, compared to their prior levels, were as follows: the consumer confidence index was 96.1 vs. 101.9, durable goods were 1.3% vs. 2.1%, core capital goods were 0.7% vs. 1.9%, personal income was down 0.7%, erasing the previous +0.7% and consumer spending rose 0.5% vs. 1.2%. At the end of last week, there had been 256,000 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US, up 26,000 in 30 days. Coronavirus hospitalizations stand at 90,000 nationwide, compared with 80,000 the previous week. News about vaccine development continues to be the light at the end of the tunnel. On Monday, the General Services Administration informed President-elect Biden that it would begin the formal transition process.

US stock market investors had something to be thankful for as they enjoyed new record highs. The increase in states certifying their vote counts for the U.S. presidential election,, along with encouraging news on coronavirus vaccine production, bolstered buying. The DJIA finally breached the 30,000 mark on Tuesday. The weekly gain of 646.62 (+2.2%) sent the index to 29,910.37 at the close. The S&P 500 also entered new territory, adding 80.81 points, ending at 3,638.35 (+2.3%), and the Russell 2000 increased 3.9% with a 5.65 gain that took it to 126.53. The NASDAQ Composite also closed at an all-time high (12,205.85), having advanced 350.88 (+3.0%). The election certainty was also a factor for the “fear index” slippage. The VIX fell 2.86 (-12.1%), making its end-of-week value of 20.84 the lowest close since February 21^st when it settled at 17.08 just before the stock market crashed. The US Dollar Index continued its downtrend, falling 0.610 (-0.7%) to 91.78 on Friday, a level not traded since April of 2018. Also returning to an early pandemic level was the GSCI commodity price benchmark, rising 14.20 (+3.8%). The index finished the week at 388.06, its highest Friday close since 400.53 on February 21^st.

The industrial metals we track were in the plus column. Aluminum for three-month delivery on the LME has been challenging $2,000 in a few recent sessions. Friday’s p.m. ring price of $1,998.50 per ton was the highest end-of-week level since November 2018. Likewise, COMEX copper popped into a range not visited for thirty months. Spot month high-grade copper rallied 10.85¢ (+3.3%), settling at $3.395 per pound. The precious category was mixed; the most active members headed south, as gold futures shed $90.10 (-4.8%), ending at $1,788.10 per troy ounce, revisiting the $1,700s for the first time since June. Silver dived $1.852 (-7.6%) to its $22.639 settlement price, the lowest Friday close since July. Platinum and palladium are still gaining strength due to physical demand for commercial applications. The former increased $7.60 (+0.8%) to its $964.80 close, while the latter jumped to $2,439.70 with a rise of $98.80 (+4.2%) in the March contract.

NYMEX crude oil prices made a solid advance as January WTI ended Friday’s session at $45.53 by rallying $3.11 (+7.3%), and ICE Brent shot up $3.22 (+7.2%) to settle at $48.18 per barrel. Refined products soared, as well. Heating oil gained 9.36¢ to close at $1.3849 (+7.2%), while RBOB gasoline gained 9.57¢, settling at $1.2660 (+8.2%). Natural gas futures have stabilized their free-fall, however, bearish weather fundamentals are still dominating the analyst reports. January natgas managed a 7.3¢ (+2.2%) gain for the week, still reeling from its nearly 20% collapse in four weeks. Friday’s close was $2.843 per MMBtu.

In agricultural markets, price direction was mostly higher. Of the nine products we regularly include in this category, seven moved higher and two were lower. Coffee rose 6.15½ (+5.2%) with the March ICE futures ending the week at $1.2420 per pound. Cocoa gained $54 (+2.0%), settling at $2,766 per metric ton. Cotton managed a small 0.28 rise (+0.4%), as the March contract closed at 73.24¢ per pound. Sugar was the loser in the ICE softs, slipping 0.39¢ (-2.6%) to its 14.82¢/lb. close. In the Chicago markets, cattle rose 2.600 (+2.3%) to 113.250, while hog futures moved down 1.100 (-1.7%) closing at 64.250¢/lb. at the week’s end. The CBT grains and oilseeds modestly maintained their upward trends. January soybeans gained 0.9% with a 10¾¢ move to $11.91¾ per bushel. The price of March wheat is back over six dollars, but barely so, ending at $6.06 with a 6½¢ gain (+1.1%). Corn increased 5½ ¢ (+1.3%) to a $4.33¾ settlement for March delivery.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 353.8% net return. Michael O’Keeffe remained in 2nd with a net return of 269.8%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 225.1%. Brent Carlile and Evgeny Kartashov rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 195.6% and 165.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 244.2% net return. Sergey Shirko held 2nd with a 157.7% net return, with Raul Glavan in 3rd with a net return of 127.2%. Jan Smolen and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 98% and 91.2% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 145%, with Patrick Nill in 2nd with a 103.4% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Cristian Franchi with a net return of 97.8%. Fernando C. Piñeiro and M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG finished the week in 4th and 5th with 88.8% and 81.9% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – November 27, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – December 4, 2020

In the Markets

The week ended with US coronavirus statistics hitting unprecedented levels. New cases numbered more than 210,000, hospitalizations exceeded 100,000 and the death toll surpassed 275,000 nationwide. On employment, analysts’ average expectation for November non-farm payrolls was 432,000, but the figure came in at 245,000. In terms of new jobs added, this is the smallest increase since the US recovery began in May. October’s NFP had been 610,000. Jobless claims by new applicants fell to 712,000 vs. 787,000 the previous week. 20.16 million Americans are receiving unemployment benefits, down from 20.51 million. As a monthly percentage, the unemployment rate slipped from 6.9% to 6.7%. October’s balance of trade level showed that the deficit grew by $1.0 billion, coming in at -$63.1 billion, compared to -$62.1 billion for September.

Equities indices stayed on their upward course all week, ending at all-time highs. The DJIA rose 307.89 (+1.0%), hitting 30,218.26 at Friday’s close; a 60.77 rise in the S&P 500 (+1.7%) took it to a 3,699.12 close. Likewise, the NASDAQ Composite index staged another record high with its 258.38 up move (+2.1%) to a 12,464.23 final mark. The Russell 2000 also gained 2.1% (+3.20 points), reaching 152.09 at week’s end. Volatility in equities has ticked slightly lower, as the CBOE VIX ended at 20.79 with a modest 0.05 decrease (-0.2%). In the currency market, the dollar weakened further, as the spot US Dollar Index ended at 90.80, a level that the index hadn’t traded since April 2018. The Canadian Dollar reached a two-year high at 77.61¢ per USD. In the S&P GSCI, the commodity gainers and losers canceled each other out, so the benchmark was marginally unchanged (+0.1%), up 0.48 and settling at 388.54 for the week.

As a sector, most metals strengthened. COMEX copper added 10.7¢ (+3.1%) closing at $3.5245/lb., its highest price in over seven years. LME three-month aluminum gained $45.50 (+2.3%), ending the week at $2,044.00 per metric ton. In the precious group, only palladium decreased, with its $81.90 price loss (-3.4%) to $2,357.80 per ounce. Due to palladium being less liquid than the other precious metals we follow, Friday’s drop might have been a technical matter involving the rolling of December contracts into March, which was compounded by the fact that CME is soon to change the palladium minimum price fluctuation increment from $0.10 to $0.50 per ounce. Allegedly, some analytic spread programs have issues with the increment change. On the other hand, platinum jumped $108.00 (+11.2%) to $1,072.80 where it settled. Platinum had not traded above $1,000 since August. Futures for gold and silver also moved on the plus side: gold rose by $51.90 (+2.9%) to $1,840.00 and silver increased by $1.614 to $24.253 (+7.1%).

Crude oil prices gained somewhat, as OPEC and key Russian oil-producing companies finally agreed on a production cut of 500,000 barrels per day. The cut was already “in the market” and had been mostly discounted. Petroleum futures ended the week up from the prior Friday. January WTI closed at $46.26, which was up $0.73 (+1.6%). ICE Brent rose 2.1%, gaining $1.00 to settle at $49.25 per barrel. In the refined products, heating oil rose 1.81¢ to close at $1.4030 (+1.3%), while RBOB gasoline gained 0.25¢, settling at $1.2685 (+0.2%). Natural gas traders are reacting to the longer-term weather outlooks that focus on La Niña. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and other forecasters are calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest, Northeast and West as winter approaches. January natgas futures tumbled 26.8¢ (-9.4%) during the course of the week, closing at $2.575, its lowest end-of-week level since March 6th ($2.471).

Prices of all nine of the agricultural products we regularly report in this recap decreased from the prior Friday. Wheat settled at $5.75½ per bushel, down 30½¢ (-5.0%). Corn, with its $4.20½ close, lost 13¼ ¢ (-3.1%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $11.65, after falling 27¾ ¢ (-2.3%). Livestock weakened as a round of coronavirus related news hit the meatpacking industry again. Cattle sagged 0.850 during the week (-0.8%) to a 112.400 close, while hogs ended at 66.570 for February, shedding 0.680 (-1.0%). Coffee decreased 6.65 (-5.4%) to 117.55 from the previous Friday. Sugar slid 0.38 (-2.6%) to its 14.44 settlement. Cocoa gave back $112 (-4.0%) for the week, closing at $2,654 per ton. March cotton retreated 1.67¢ (-2.3%) to its 71.57¢/lb. final price.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 356.7% net return. Michael O’Keeffe remained in 2nd with a net return of 279.9%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 218.6%. Brent Carlile and Evgeny Kartashov rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 184.2% and 165.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 243.6% net return. Sergey Shirko held 2nd with a 129.2% net return, with Jan Smolen in 3rd with a net return of 100.8%. Scott Welsh and Raul Glavan rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 91.9% and 88% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 148%. M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG climbed up to 2nd with a 119.2% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Patrick Nill with a net return of 105.9%. Jan Smolen and Fernando C. Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th with 101% and 91.5% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – December 4, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – December 11, 2020

In the Markets

Jobless claims were sharply higher, coming in at 853,000, 18.4% higher than the average of 720,000 expected by Wall Street analysts. Consumer credit for October increased by $7billion, nearly half of September’s $15 billion. Wholesale inventories increased 1.1%, up slightly from the previous month’s 0.9% gain. CPI for November was up 0.2% vs. October’s zero change. The PPI for November rose 0.1%, compared with 0.3% from a month earlier. Stimulus talks are ongoing, as millions of Americans are in dire need. Coronavirus infection rates were up again. The US had its worst week since the pandemic started. Pfizer announced that vaccine shipments are on the way. UPS and FedEx will be delivering around the clock.

Equities indices struggled all week and closed with little change for the week. The DJIA fell a fractional 0.6% (down 171.89), going out at 30,046.37 on Friday. There was a 35.66 loss for the S&P 500 (-1.0%) closing at 3,663.46. The NASDAQ Composite index followed suit, sagging 0.7% (-86.36) to its 12,377.87 closing price. Holding some strength, the Russell 2000 firmed 1.1%, with a 1.62 rise to 153.71 points, a record end-of-week settlement. Volatility returned by 12.1%, as measured by the CBOE VIX, which added 2.52, ending at 23.31 for the week. In the currency market, the US Dollar Index stabilized with a small gain of 0.18 (+0.2%) to close at 90.98. In the broad picture of commodity markets, the S&P GSCI increased 5.18 (+1.3%), finishing at 393.72, a ten-month high.

Metals were relatively lackluster. In futures, gold gained slightly adding $3.60 last week, to end at $1,843.60 per ounce (+0.2%). Silver slipped 16.1¢ (-0.7%) to $24.092 in the March contract. Platinum ticked down $51.00 to close at $1,021.80 (-4.8%), and palladium’s $24.70 decline to $2,333.10 was 1.0% lower than the previous Friday. The base metals were flat, to down. CME copper gained 0.35¢ (-0.1%) settling at $3.5280 per pound, and LME aluminum ended the week at $2,022.50/ton, a decline of $21.50 (-1.1%).

On the charts, the petroleum complex maintained the upward trend. NYMEX crude oil prices booked an increase, as January WTI ended Friday’s session at $46.57, which was up 31¢ (+0.7.%). ICE Brent gained 72¢ (+1.5%), settling at $49.97 per barrel. The per-gallon price of heating oil added 3.39¢ to close at $1.4369 (+2.4%), while RBOB showed a bit more momentum, gaining 3.92¢ cents for the week, settling at $1.3077 (+3.1%). Spot natgas futures ended 1.6¢ higher for the week (+0.6%). Friday’s settlement was $2.591 per MMBtu.

Of the nine agricultural futures contracts we monitor for this report, six increased and three decreased. Wheat settled at $6.14½ per bushel, up 39¢ (+6.8%). Corn, with its $4.23½ close, rose 3¢ (+0.7%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $11.66, squeaking out a 1¢ gain (+0.1%). Livestock was mixed. Cattle added 0.850 during the week (+0.8%) to a 113.250 close, while hogs ended at 63.225 for February, dropping 3.345 (-5.0%). Coffee increased 4.05 (+3.4%) to 121.60 from the previous Friday. Sugar lost a tick (-0.1%) to its 14.43 settlement. Cocoa retreated $32 (-1.2%) for the week, closing at $2,622 per ton. March cotton advanced 2.51¢ (+3.5%) to its 74.08¢/lb. closing price.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 351.7% net return. Michael O’Keeffe remained in 2nd with a net return of 261.8%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 223.2%. Brent Carlile and Evgeny Kartashov rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 193.9% and 165.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Sergey Shirko held the top spot with a 125.4% net return. Jan Smolen held 2nd with a 102.3% net return, with Raul Glavan in 3rd with a net return of 88.5%. Scott Welsh and Irwan Ariston rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 77.7% and 37.2% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 144.2%. M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG held 2nd with a 129.1% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Cristian Franchi with a net return of 124.3%. Fernando C. Piñeiro and Jan Smolen finished the week in 4th and 5th with 91.5% and 87.8% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – December 11, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – December 18, 2020

In the Markets

Weekly initial jobless claims shot higher to 885,000; there were 862,000 new claims the previous week. The monthly report of the index of leading economic indicators advanced 0.6%, the lowest change in five months. Industrial production rose 0.4%, weaker than the prior month (+0.9%). The retail sales report for November was -1.1%, down from October’s (- 0.1%). Cumulative COVID-19 fatalities have surpassed 300,000 in the US, with 115,000 Americans now hospitalized with the virus. Nationwide, over 17 million cases have been identified. Vaccination, now a reality, is the primary focus of coronavirus news coverage.

Equities indices methodically crept into record territory throughout the week, some finishing at all-time end-of-week highs. The DJIA rose 132.68 (+0.4%), closing at 30,179.05 on Friday; the 45.95 rise in the S&P 500 (+1.3%) took it to a 3,709.41 close. The NASDAQ Composite index staged a 377.77 up move (+3.1%) to a 12,755.64 final mark. The Russell 2000 gained 3.58 (+2.3%), settling at 157.29 at week’s end. According to the CBOE VIX, volatility in equities eased from the previous week’s 12.1% rally by falling 1.74 (down 7.5%) and ended at 21.57 on Friday.

In currencies, the dollar took a further drubbing, as the spot USD Index ended at 89.92, its first close below 90.00 since mid-April 2018. In the S&P GSCI commodity portfolio, the gainers outpaced losers, advancing the benchmark by 14.29 (+3.6%), and settling at 408.01, the first time the index traded over 400 since late February 2020.

The metal futures we track here all ticked higher. Silver was the leader in percentage terms. March gained $1.941 (+8.1%), ending at $26.033 per ounce. February gold rose $45.30 (+2.5%), closing at $1,888.90, it’s highest price in a month. January platinum climbed $21.30 (+2.1%) to $1,043.10. March palladium added $38.90 (+1.7%) to $2,372.00. Base metals kept their uptrends intact; copper and aluminum scored new highs for the year. Copper rallied 10.45¢ (+3.0%) to close at $3.6325 per pound, and aluminum increased $34 (+1.7%), going out at $2,056.50 per metric ton.

NYMEX crude oil prices had a strong week, as January WTI ended Friday’s session at $49.10 by jumping $2.53 (+5.4%), and ICE Brent rallied $2.29 (+4.6%) to settle at $52.26 per barrel. Refined products improved, as well. Heating oil gained 7.61¢ to close at $1.5130 (+5.3%), while RBOB gasoline gained 8.79¢, settling at $1.3956 (+6.7%). Natural gas buyers have applied the brakes on the short-term cold forecast rally. January natgas popped higher Monday, but moved sideways on the charts for the rest of the week to manage a 10.9¢ (+4.2%) gain, closing at $2.700 per MMBtu.

In the agricultural markets that we cover in our recap, price direction was mostly higher. Corn and soybeans continued to trend upwards, while wheat was marginally lower. In those products, soybeans fared best, as the January contract rallied 5.0% with a 58¢ move to $12.24 per bushel; this has led veteran bean traders to give the old battle cry, “Beans in the Teens!” once again. Corn increased 14¢ (+3.3%) to its $4.37½ settlement. Wheat prices slipped to $6.08¼¢, with a 6¼¢ decrease (-1.0%). Coffee rose 3.65 points (+3.0%), with the March ICE futures ending the week at $1.2525 per pound. Cocoa lost $116 (-4.4%), settling at $2,506 per metric ton. Cotton made a new high for the year, adding 3.08 points (+4.2%), as the March contract closed at 77.16¢ per pound. For the third straight week, sugar has hardly budged, moving up only 0.01¢ (+0.1%) to its 14.44¢/lb. close. In the livestock markets, cattle rose 1.600 (+1.4%) to 114.850, while hog futures rallied 2.575 (+4.1%) closing at 65.800¢/lb. at week’s end.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 355.4% net return. Brent Carlile climbed to 2nd with a net return of 283.8%. Michael O’Keeffe finished the week in 3rd with a net return of 254.1%. Yuwen Cao and Fernando C. Piñeiro rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 225.1% and 166.2% respectively.

In the Forex division, Jan Smolen claimed the top spot with a 129.5% net return. Sergey Shirko finished the week in 2nd with a 123.2% net return, with Scott Welsh in 3rd with a net return of 78.7%. Irwan Ariston and WenChen Zhang rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 76.2% and 33.8% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG claimed first with a net return of 165.9%. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a 154.6% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Cristian Franchi with a net return of 126.9%. Jan Smolen and Fernando C. Piñeiro finished the week in 4th and 5th with 108.3% and 95.4% net returns respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – December 18, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.