Weekly Market Recap – March 3, 2020

In the Markets

Last week ended the first quarter of 2020; hence, our weekly recap highlights many of the Q1 statistics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 companies ended the quarter at 21052.53, down 23.2% the period (-2.7% for the week ending April 3rd). The spot S&P 500 index closed Q1 at 2488.65, down exactly 20.0% for the quarter (and -2.1% for the week). The quarterly move for the NASDAQ composite was -14.2 % (down 1.7% on the week), while the Russell 2000 booked a 30.8% decline in Q1, the weekly change was -7.1%.

March’s stock market activity exhibited extreme volatility, as evidenced by the CBOE VIX. In the first seven weeks of Q1, the VIX plodded along between 11 and 20. However, during the final six weeks of the quarter, the volatility index shot from 25 to 85 and then tumbled down to 51 for quarter’s end. At the week’s closing bell, the VIX stood at 46.8. The magnitude of government stimulus efforts probably helped to dampen the volatility, despite the unprecedented unemployment figure (6.6 million claims) that greatly surpassed the previous week’s record claims number.

As global markets reacted to the COVID-19 repercussions throughout the latter half of Q1, world governments counteracted with currency and interest rate intervention. The most active CME bond and note futures (30Year, Ultra, 10Y, 5Y and 2Y) capped the Q1 charts with sharp up moves in sync with the declining yields of long dated sovereign debt instruments. The June U.S. Dollar Index futures chart, as a proxy for all the major currencies, showed a four-legged whipsaw, up-down-up-down, that began the first week of February 3rd. It had ranged from 94.53 to 103.96, and ended Q1 at 99.09, close to the whipsaw’s mean of 99.25. By week’s end it had crept up to 100.68.

Metal futures were volatile, too, with daily ranges greater than they had been earlier in the first quarter. June gold eased 1.8% for the week, closing at 1624.40 per ounce, yet finished the quarter up 4.0%. At $14.49/oz., front month silver, on the other hand, lost 21.4% in the first quarter, which is consistent with our March 20th recap about the ratio between gold and silver spiking to historic highs. The ratio is now 111 ounces of silver per ounce of gold, compared to the record high of 123.78 that traded in the spot bullion market on March 16th. The ratio increased 32.9% in Q1. Platinum futures declined 25.8% in the first quarter, with a 2.8% loss for the week. Palladium regained its strength in the precious metal complex. Despite falling 13% last week, palladium still holds a Q1 gain of 21.1%. Base metals were mixed as CME high-grade copper fractionally firmed 0.3% for the week, while LME aluminum eased 3.5%; their quarterly movements declined 20.6% and 15.7% respectively.

Oil prices sharply rallied last week as the U.S. role gained traction in brokering the Russian/Saudi production war. WTI crude futures and ICE Brent crude futures each gained nearly 7 dollars per barrel for the week (+31.8% and +24.4%). This did not prevent all-time record quarterly decline figures: WTI down 65.8% and Brent down 58.9% in Q1. CME refined petroleum products rallied in sympathy with crude. Heating oil picked up 3.9% on the week and RBOB gasoline gained 16.5%. For quarter end, heating oil fell 49.5% and gasoline dropped 68.5%. Rounding out the energy prices that we report in our recap, CME natural gas continues its downtrend, with the front month softening 0.7% for the week, and ending Q1 with prices sliding 25%.

In the agricultural commodities, March 31st was significant for another reason: the USDA release of its prospective planting report. In a normal spring, farmers project acreage levels showing how much they intend to plant in each crop, but this spring is not normal. This year, in addition to atypical weather/climate coupled with trade/tariff wars, etc. farmers must now consider an additional variable in the formula: the COVID-19 effect. This encompasses global consumer demand and supply chain logistics, along with the pandemic’s local impact on farming states and their communities. The result makes this USDA release even less relevant than it usually is, especially since the data was compiled in mid February, when the scope of the pandemic in the U.S. was less dire. Regarding ag commodity market behavior, it is best to let the prices speak for themselves. Corn was down 15¼ cents for the week (-4.4%) and down 13.7% for Q1. Wheat lost 22 cents last week (-3.9%) and up 1.2% for the quarter. Soybeans declined 27¼ cents last week (-3.1%) and the quarter saw a drop of 8.5%. Cotton eased 35 cents in the past week (-0.7%), and moved 27.1% lower during the quarter. Last week in Bangladesh, the garment industry laid off more than one million workers due to COVID-19, which could potentially affect the global cotton market. According to Forbes, Bangladesh is the “second largest individual country for apparel manufacturing in the world behind China and is where brands like H&M, Target and Marks and Spencer produce much of their goods.” It is not only American business that is becoming unglued.

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A. Masters maintains the lead with a 1,171.6% net return, though the competition has closed in, with Michael O’Keeffe at a 943.6% net return. Allen Swiontek regained 3rd with a 229.7% net return. Yuwen Cao moved down a spot to 4th at 219% and former WCTC champion Stefano Serafini joined the leader board in 5th this week at 208.5%.

In the Global Cup, Michael Cook held first place for yet another week with a 233.5% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 193.3%, while Wayne Wan held on to 3rd with a 176.9% net return. Following are Robert Miner at 168.6% net and Maxim Schulz at 132.8% net respectively.

In the Forex division of the World Cup Trading Championships®, Nicholas Ridley finished the week in first place with a net return of 120.8%, followed by Chien-Hung Chen at 81.1% and Andreas Plagge at 70.5% net. Miguel Garcia moved to 4th with a net return of 67.8% and Wenchen Zhang finished the week in 5th with a net return of 43%.

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Weekly Market Recap – April 9, 2020

In the Markets

COVID-19’s spread has led to 16.8 million job losses in the past three weeks. Thursday’s statistic of 6.6 million new unemployment claims was already “in the market” when the figure was released that day. Later that afternoon the Federal Reserve announced a plan for a stimulus package of an additional $2.3 trillion in aid for state and local governments, as well as for small businesses. This helped boost the stock market for a fourth straight day.

Shortened by the Good Friday holiday, the past week saw gains across the board in the US equity indices that we track in this recap. The DJIA ended on Thursday at 23,719.37, up 2,666.84 for the week (+12.7%). In percentage terms, it was the best weekly rally the DJIA had seen since October 11, 1974, when it had risen 14%. In the S&P 500 spot index, a 301.17 increase took it to 2,789.82 (+12.1%). A slightly lower percent gain (+10.6%) for the NASDAQ Composite was due to its 780.50 rise to 8,153.58. A more robust up move was exhibited by the Russell 2000 index that garnered an 18.2% rally by closing up 15.31 to the 99.6 level.

The connection between market volatility and the uncertainty of the pandemic’s trajectory may be implied by the CBOE volatility index. Having ended the week at 41.67, means it has deflated 49% since it peaked on March 18 at 85.47. Some investors consider this index, which is derived from index option premium pricing, as quantification of uncertainty. In addition to the decline of the VIX in the last three weeks, is has been trending more tamely as the intra-day ranges of the index are growing smaller.

In precious metals, however, volatility is not waning. As for gold futures, the intra-day ranges are remaining erratic. Despite the news at the end of March that Russia was ceasing its gold purchases, the yellow metal rallied to new contract highs on Thursday when June gold closed at $1,752.80, up $128.40 for the week (+7.9%). Spot gold bullion ended the week at $1,686.57, the highest it has traded since 2012. The all-time high was $1,856.49 in September of 2011. Silver futures rose 10.5% for the week, up $1.53 settling at $16.05/ounce. Platinum and palladium futures were mixed, with the former rising $24/oz. and the latter falling $8/oz. Their weekly percentage changes were +3.3% and -0.4%, respectively. The base metals we follow here were also mixed for the week. CME copper futures firmed (+3.8%), while LME aluminum eased (-0.8%).

As far as the energy complex is concerned, the markets are still driven by a tug of war. This price discovery process is pitting the demand destruction linked to the virus against the supply negotiations and machinations by OPEC, Russia and the major oil producers. CME crude futures, May WTI, ended the week at $23.76, which was down $5.58 (-19.7%). The other most-watched barrel, ICE June Brent crude, declined 9.5% last week, losing $3.30 to settle at $31.48. Refined products retreated, as well. May heating oil went back below the one-dollar level, losing 14 cents to close at $0.9726 (-12.4%), while RBOB gasoline lost 4 cents, settling at $0.6773 (-5.3%). A surprise cold wave in the forecast for the US Midwest and Northeast sent natural gas futures off to a three day 20+ cent rally, with a pullback on Thursday. The May contract ended the week up 4.5%.

Wrapping up with agricultural commodities, we’ll start with corn. At the end of the quarter in the previous week, one of the highlighted news items had been the prospective planting intentions release by the USDA. The March 31^st report included 97 million acres for corn, which amounted to 3 million more than the average estimate. About half the US corn crop is used for ethanol production. COVID-19 is altering market supply chain dynamics in unexpected ways. The drop in gasoline demand spurred by the coronavirus also impacted ethanol production, leading to shutdowns of ethanol plants; ironically, some manufacturers are re-tooling their equipment in order to produce hand sanitizer. Corn ended the week practically unchanged, up 1cent/bushel (+0.3%). Wheat firmed 1.3%, and soybeans gained 1.1%. CME’s other ag markets moved as follows: cattle +4.4%, hogs +0.7% and milk was down 6.2%. Most of the soft commodities traded at ICE were up a bit: coffee +4.8%, cocoa +1.8%, sugar +1.2%, cotton +6.6%, however, frozen concentrated orange juice dipped by 2.4%.

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Michael O’Keeffe gained the top position with a 909.4% net return as A. Masters moved down to 2nd with a 639.1% net return. Allen Swiontek held 3rd with a 257.7% net return. Yuwen Cao and Stefano Serafini are neck in neck for the 4th and 5th positions with net returns of 218.7% and 218% respectively.

In the Global Cup, Michael Cook held first place for yet another week with a 231.6% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 207.2%. Robert Miner moved up to 3rd with a 168.6% net return and Maxim Schulz took 4th with a net return of 131.5%, moving Wayne Wan to 5th with an 87.7% net return.

In the Forex division of the World Cup Trading Championships®, Nicholas Ridley finished the week holding onto first place with a net return of 105.3%, followed by Chien-Hung Chen at 81.2% and Raul Glavan at 75.3% net. Luca Angelucci moved to 4th with a net return of 60.7% Miguel Garcia finished the week in 5th with a net return of 55.5%.

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Weekly Market Recap – April 17, 2020

In the Markets

Pandemic news has been the primary fundamental factor in global capital markets since February. As the data has begun showing COVID-19’s curves flattening, investors have been reacting more positively. Recent market action continued the uptrend as stock indexes posted strong gains for a second consecutive week. The Wall Street Journal stated, “The Dow had its best two-week performance since the 1930s.”

The DJIA closed at 24,242 on Friday, up 523 for the week (+2.2%, with +15.1% for both weeks). For the S&P 500 index, the final level of 2,875 was an increase of 85 (+3.0%, and +15.5% in two weeks). The NASDAQ Composite showed a bit more strength, having a 6.1% rise, due to its 497-point improvement to settle the week at 8,650. NASDAQ’s two-week increase amounted to +17.3%. There was a slight pullback in the Russell 2000, which had a 1-point decrease to 98 (-1.3% for the week, yet +16.6% in the two week period). Assessing those four markers on a year-to-date calculation: DJIA is down 11.0%, S&P 500 is 15.1% lower, NASDAQ shows a mere 3.6% decrease and the Russell has dropped 26.2% since December 31, 2019. The CBOE’s VIX scale eased further due to more stability in option premiums. The volatility index ended at 38.15 on Friday, its lowest weekly close since February 21st, when it settled at 17.08.

Precious metal futures were mixed, as June gold declined $54/oz. last week, ending at 1698.80 (-3.1%). Front-month silver slipped 4.7%, ending down 76 cents at $15.30/oz. The platinum group firmed as July platinum rallied 4.9%, up $36.70 to $785.30; and June palladium rallied 1.0%, up $20.90 to $2,130.90/oz. Base metals are also staging up moves from recent lows. CME copper rose 3.8% to $2.3445/lb. and LME aluminum increased by 2.2% to $1,512.50 per metric ton.

Energy market traders continued to focus on supply-side management efforts by global oil producers. However, stocks of crude and refined products spiked in the latest inventory report as storage approached full capacities. WTI futures ended the week at an 18 year low of $18.11 per barrel, down 20.4% for the week (making the year to date decline -69.8%). ICE Brent lost 12.3% from the previous week, settling at $27.60 (down 56.9% this year). Refined product prices were mixed. Heating oil futures closed at $0.9667 (-0.6%) as RBOB gasoline rose to $0.7133 (+5.3%). Natural gas prices increased as colder than normal shoulder season temperatures boosted demand. The May contract closed at $1.762, adding 1.7% from the prior week.

The week’s news about basic food commodities included stories about shortages as well as surplus conditions. The closing of restaurants and schools has led to fewer donations to food banks. Long lines at grocery retailers are getting even longer and some supplies are tightening. Yet, farmers are having to let crops spoil and dairy producers are dumping milk due to supply chain problems and customer attrition.

Soybean futures for May delivery fell 31¢ per bushel to $8.3250 (3.6%). Corn declined 9.5¢ to $3.2225 (-2.9%). Nearby month wheat fell by 23¢ to $5.3300 (-4.1%). Coffee lost 3.7% and sugar eased 0.6%. However, cocoa’s strong close on Friday rendered a 3.2% increase for the week, despite the lower global consumer demand for chocolate. Cotton lost 2.9%, as did FCOJ. Milk dropped 3.3%, hogs pared 10.2%, while cattle managed to stage a rise of 2.3% from the previous week.

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Michael O’Keeffe held onto the top position with a 995.8% net return. A. Masters and Allen Swiontek held 2nd and 3rd as well with net returns of 388.5% and 332.5% respectively. Stefano Serafini and Yuwen Cao are neck in neck for the 4th and 5th positions with net returns of 231.2% and 218.7% respectively.

In the Global Cup, Michael Cook held first place for yet another week with a 235.2% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 208.4%. Robert Miner maintained 3rd with a 136.7% net return. Maxim Schulz and Wayne Wan held onto 4th and 5th with respective 131.5% and 100.2% net returns.

In the Forex division of the World Cup Trading Championships®, Nicholas Ridley finished the week holding onto first place with a net return of 139.6%, followed by Chien-Hung Chen at 87% and Raul Glavan at 79.4% net. Andreas Plagge and WenChen Zhang reclaimed spots on the leaderboard with net returns of 52.8% and 42.1% respectively.

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Weekly Market Recap – April 24, 2020

In the Markets

This week, the trading markets absorbed Thursday’s labor department report of 4.4 million jobless claims, a number lower than the three previous weekly releases. This brings the total claims reported in April to 23.1 million.

In other Coronavirus related news, more economic stimulus legislation was enacted. On Friday, the president signed a $484 billion package for small businesses, hospitals, and first responders. Due to the fact that investors had anticipated the unemployment and relief news, the market reactions lacked volatility, evidenced by the mere blip of CBOE’s VIX: increasing 2.47 points (+6.3%) for the week. This so-called “fear index” closed at 41.52 on Friday, slightly below 46.17 – its 2020 mean.

Stock index performance was relatively uneventful as the DJIA closed 467.22 lower, at 23,775.27 (-1.9%), and the S&P 500 settled with a decrease of 37.82 points, bringing it to 2,836.74 (-1.3%). The other equities benchmarks that we monitor here hardly budged; NASDAQ’s composite lost 0.2% with its -15.62 point move to 8,634.52. The Russell 2000 index managed a slight rise of 0.45 points to 98.75 (+0.5%).

Precious metal futures also held fairly steady, with June gold closing at $1,745.70 (gaining $46.90 or 2.8%), and May Silver rising only 6¢, a +0.4% move to $15.35 per ounce. July platinum lost $3.60 (-0.5%) going out at $781.70 at week’s end, while palladium declined $154.90 (-7.3%) to $1,976.00 for the June contract. Base metals, as well, hardly changed. CME copper had a one-cent drop to $2.337 per pound (-0.3%). LME aluminum gained 0.2% with its $3 gain to $1,510 per metric ton.

A week ago, our energy recap described the continuing crude oil decline as a reaction to the problem that storage facilities were at, or near, full capacity. That situation played out last Monday. In an unprecedented move, the soon-to-expire May WTI contract plunged into negative price territory. Crude tumbled most of the session, closing at minus $37.63, which was $55.90 lower than it had settled the previous week. May crude had become a “hot potato”: nobody wanted it, there was no place to store it, and those who owned it were scrambling to unload it, even if they had to pay the buyers. (At expiration on Tuesday, it re-entered positive territory to settle at $10.01 – down 83.3%, year-to-date.) The new nearby contract, June WTI ended the week at $17.18 per barrel, down $7.85 (-31.4%). ICE Brent fell $6.14 (-21.9%) to $21.94 at the close. May refined products moved lower as heating oil dropped to $0.6729 (-29.6%), and RBOB gasoline eased $0.0524 (-7.4%). Natural gas had rallied earlier in the week, and then corrected back to $1.746 at week’s end, down $0.0430 (-2.5%).

In agricultural futures, a couple of markets were impacted by Brazil’s currency crashing against the US dollar. The spot Real (“BLRUSD”) closed at $0.1979 on Friday, an all-time low. Coffee and sugar traders who closely follow Brazil’s exports of those commodities sold heavily, anticipating that producers would increase sales to make up for their shrinking Reals. July coffee declined 8.6% for the week, to a $1.0675 close. July sugar lost 6.8%, closing at 9.81¢, also a record low.

On the CBT, wheat rallied early in the week on talk that Ukraine would increase export cuts, but by Friday, the pressure had faded, and the May contract ended at $5.2675/bushel, down 6.75 cents (-1.3%). Corn booked a 6.5 cent decline to $3.1575 (down 2.0%). Soybeans for May closed at $8.3225 on Friday, only down a quarter of a cent, statistically a zero percent change.

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Michael O’Keeffe held onto the top position passing the 1,000% mark with a 1,043.1% net return. A. Masters and Allen Swiontek are in close competition for 2nd and 3rd, with net returns of 383.5% and 381.1% respectively. Yuwen Cao passed Stefano Serafini for 4th with a net return of 272% to Serafini’s 176.7%.

In the Global Cup, Michael Cook maintained 1st with a 229.6% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 206.8%. Maxim Schults moved into 3rd with a 136.3% net return. Wayne Wan moved into 4th with a 128.4% net return and Robert Miner stayed on the leaderboard in 5th with a 118.6% net return.

In the Forex division of the World Cup Trading Championships®, Nicholas Ridley finished the week holding onto first place with a net return of 81.8%, followed by Raul Glavan at 69.8% and Chien-Hung Chen at 63.9% net. Michel Campanale joined the leaderboard with a net return of 63.6% and WenChen Zhang stayed on the leaderboard with a net return of 45.2%.

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Weekly Market Recap – May 1, 2020

In the Markets

Early last week, some businesses across the nation began the process of opening their doors again, adding to investor confidence which was also bolstered by encouraging news about Remdesivir trials. On Wednesday, the commerce department reported that the gross domestic product contracted 4.8% in Q1. The jobless claims report released by the labor department on Thursday added 3.8 million to the tally, now having accumulated over 30 million claims in the past six weeks. Consumer spending was reported to have fallen 7.5% in March.

The DJIA moved higher through the week, then slipped lower on Friday, closing down 51.58 to 23,723.69 (-0.2%). A similar pattern was followed by the S&P 500 spot index as it eased 6.02 points to 2,830.71 (also down 0.2%). The NASDAQ Composite ended the week at 8,604.95 after a 29.57 drop for the week (-0.3%). Some strength persisted for the Russell 2000, showing an up-move of 2.21 points to 100.96 (+2.2%). A small degree of volatility returned to the option premiums as CBOE’s VIX popped up 1.26 points to 37.19 for a weekly change of +3.5%. USDX spot index ended the week at 98.68 for a decline of 1.61 (-1.6% for the week).

Metals futures were relatively stable in both the precious and industrial sectors. June gold lost $36.30 (-2.1%) ending at $1,709.40 for Friday’s settlement. May silver, too, declined 2.1% (down 33¢), settling at $15.025 per troy ounce. Platinum group metals were less volatile than they had been a month ago. July platinum fell only $3.80/oz. ending the week at $777.90 (-0.5%), while June palladium’s weekly move was a loss of $89.70, closing at $1,886.30 (-4.5%). The base metals we track in our recap were equally lackluster: CME copper ended the week at $2.313/lb. (-1.0%), and LME aluminum also lost 1.0% for the week. Due to the Good Friday bank holiday in UK, LME ended its week on Thursday, when aluminum settled at $1,494.50 per metric ton.

Petroleum market analysts continued their focus on storage fundamentals, precipitated by historically low demand. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery rebounded $2.84 last week to $19.78/barrel (+16.8%), while North Sea Brent crude gained $3.83 and closed at $25.27 for a 17.9% increase. Heating oil rose 8.6% and gasoline firmed 9.5%, with the June contracts for each ending at $0.7961 and $0.7663 respectively. Shoulder season doldrums dominated natural gas futures, as June ended at $1.890 per MMBtu (-0.3%).

Food supply chain concerns have become an added unknown factor in fundamental analysis of agricultural product markets. The recent news of COVID-19’s far reaching impact on the US meat industry spans the spectrum from feedlots to processing, from the strains on the labor force and on the distribution networks, and from consumer demand to price gouging by retailers. CME live hog futures prices are 30% higher than a month ago. June hogs rose 21.7% for the week, ending up 11.18 to close at 62.70 cents per pound. Live cattle increased 7.9% since one month ago, with the week’s close at 87.25 (+5.6%) for the week. Milk prices remain in a downtrend although the July contract managed a 2.9% rise for the week, with 13.61 cents as final settlement.

US grain and oilseed markets were mixed, as hedgers assessed the weather on several continents, as well as planting and export intentions. Soybeans rose 15¢ to $8.47¼ (+1.8%), corn lost 4¼¢ to $3.11½ (-1.3%), and wheat retreated 5¼¢ to $5.21½ (-1.0%). In the soft commodity sector, cocoa prices were supported last week by the Ivory Coast extending its pandemic state of emergency to mid-May. July cocoa rose 79 to 2402 (+3.4%). Somewhat of a rebound for the Brazilian Real sparked a rally in sugar futures as July rose 1.16 to 10.97 for an 11.8% increase from the previous week. Not so with the coffee prices, as weather fundamentals kept pressure on the July contract, ending the week down 0.65 at 106.10 (-0.6%).

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Michael O’Keeffe held onto the top position with a 1,038.6% net return. Allen Swiontek switched positions with A. Masters for 2nd and 3rd, with net returns of 343.8% and 317.2% respectively. Yuwen Cao remained in 4th at 225.4% net, with Fernando Pineiro joining the leader board with a net return of 201.5%.

In the Global Cup, Michael Cook maintained 1st with a 228.1% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 212.3%. Maxim Schultz held 3rd with a 137.5% net return. Robert Miner moved into 4th with a 118.2% net return and Wayne Wan stayed on the leaderboard in 5th with a 106.6% net return.

In the Forex division of the World Cup Trading Championships®, Nicholas Ridley finished the week holding onto first place with a net return of 107.9%, followed by Raul Glavan at 87.4% net. WenChen Zhang climbed to 3rd with a net return of 52.3%, followed by Miguel Garcia and Scott Welsh with net returns of 48.7% and 37.7% respectively.

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Weekly Market Recap – May 8, 2020

In the Markets

This week’s statistics gave investors another snapshot of stresses in the economy and society, as a whole. The Department of Commerce reported that the US trade gap rose to $44.4 billion in March, wider than February’s gap of $39.8 billion. According to the Federal Reserve, Consumer borrowing fell for the first time since 2011. The Bank of England projected that Britain will see its deepest annual contraction since 1706. US weekly jobless claims were 3.2 million, bringing the total to 33 million since the pandemic began ravaging the markets. The Department of Labor released its monthly unemployment figure, indicating that 20.5 million jobs vanished in April, putting the level at 14.7%, the highest the nation has seen since 1939; this past February, unemployment was 3.5%, a more than 50 year low. Worldwide, the coronavirus has now infected over 4 million people and killed more than 280,000. In the US, the toll is 1.3 million infected with nearly 80,000 deaths, to date.

Despite these numbers, stocks managed to rise on Friday with some analysts attributing the strength to the fact that the reported unemployment spike was not as high as the average estimates of Wall Street economists. The DJIA rose 607.63 for the week, ending at 24,331.32 (+2.6%); likewise, there was a 99.09 increase for the S&P 500 (+3.5%) closing on Friday at 2,929.80. NASDAQ’s composite index fared even better, registering a weekly up move of 6.0% to 9,121.32, 516.37 higher; while the Russell 2000 scored a 5.61 advance to 106.57 (+5.6%). Volatility in equities has waned; the daily high-to-low ranges last week were the tightest since mid-February: CBOE’s VIX had it’s lowest close since February 26th, as it eased last week to 27.98 for a 9.21 retreat of 24.8%.

In base metals, copper has been steadily gaining since its mid-March lows. The fundamentals point to Chile, the world’s largest copper producer. Mine shutdowns from coronavirus issues have pinched world production. Despite the pandemic’s affect of diminishing industrial demand for the metal, CME July copper gained 4.1% last week, closing at $2.406/lb. LME Aluminum eased to $1,485/ton (-0.6%). Precious metals have been more stable in recent weeks, with fewer abrupt swings. Friday’s June gold close was $1,713.90 from a $4.50 gain (+0.3%). Silver had a bit more of boost, racking up a 5.7% increase of 84¢ to a $15.778 settlement for the July contract. June platinum futures blipped for the week (+1.5%), adding $11.40 to end at $789.30 per ounce. Palladium, behaving more industrial than precious last week, dropped $65.20 to $1,821.10 (-3.5%).

Even though oil storage tightness continues and is exacerbated by reports about “armadas of tankers” lining up to offload their cargo in US ports, the petroleum complex showed remarkable strength. Most energy futures had an up week, the second in a row, as news of Saudi Arabia’s strategy shift emboldened futures buyers to return. The Kingdom is now raising its prices again, especially for its Asian customers. Front-month WTI and Brent crude steadily rallied. WTI closed at $24.74 with a hearty 25.1% increase of $4.96 per barrel, while Brent’s advance of $4.53 to $30.97 amounted to a 17.1% improvement. In the US, drivers are filling their tanks again as more vehicles return to the roads. This was indicated by a robust gasoline consumption report that caught refiners by surprise. RBOB gasoline futures surged 20¢ per gallon (+25.7%) ending at $0.9629 per gallon. CME heating oil gained 14¢ (+18.0%) ending the week at $0.7663 at Friday’s close. Weather forecasts are often the driver for natural gas price direction, which receded last week. The reversal was due to the lessening of the unusual spring cold snap, likely caused by the seasonally atypical late polar vortex. NOAA expects the pattern to normalize in a week to 10 days, returning the eastern half of North America to average May temperatures. June natgas ebbed by 6.7¢ last week (-3.5%), settling at $1.823 per MMBtu.

The downtrend continues in the agricultural sector for the grains/oilseeds group, as planting reports showed numbers that are ahead of last year’s, although Friday’s closes showed modest increases: Soybeans gained 0.1% to close at $8.50½, corn’s $3.19¼ settlement was a mere 0.2% rise, and wheat increased with a 1.1% rise to $5.22 per bushel. Soft commodities were mixed as the ICE’s coffee contract gained 5.2% to $1.1165/lb., sugar slipped 6.2% to its 10.29¢/lb. close, and cocoa eased only $2 (-0.1%), settling at $2,400 per metric ton. Cotton futures improved by 1.7%, as the July contract closed at 56.27¢ per pound. Pandemic economics continue to impact the meatpacking industry on both the supply side and the demand side. Cattle rose 8.5%, while hogs slid 1.6%, closing at $0.9465 and $0.6170 per pound, respectively.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, the 5th week in a row with a 955.6% net return. Allen Swiontek’s return of 232.1% gives him the 2nd position on the board. Fernando Pineiro joined the top 3 with a 228% net return. Yuwen Cao and Tim Hall rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 216.4% and 213.5% respectively.

In the Global Cup, Michael Cook maintained 1st with a 204.5% net return. Stefan Seibert held 2nd with a net return of 191.6%. Maxim Schultz held 3rd with a 137.5% net return. Wayne Wan and Robert Miner swapped positions again with net returns of 91% and 79.9% respectively.

In the Forex division of the World Cup Trading Championships®, Raul Glavan finished the week holding onto first place with a net return of 95.7%, followed by Nicholas Ridley at 87.3% net. WenChen Zhang held 3rd with a net return of 46.7%, followed by Scott Welsh and Chien-Hung Chen with net returns of 46.1% and 38.9% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – May 8, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – May 15, 2020

In the Markets

Stock market investors pushed the indices lower this past week, due to a combination of pandemic news, a rekindled US-China trade war campaign and more negative economic data. Retail sales plunged 16.4% in April (worse than the expected 12% setback), registering the largest drop since the reporting of the data series began in 1992. This was the second month in a row of record declines. Industrial production posted a steep drop for April, down 11.2% from the previous month, the greatest decline since 1919. Weekly unemployment claims numbered 2.98 million. Market participants are re-calibrating their concerns about a second wave of COVID-19 as more states prepare to re-open and a $3 billion rescue bill passed in the House for another proposed round of stimulus.

The DJIA retreated 645.90 (-2.7%), closing at 23,685.42 on Friday. The S&P 500 gave back 66.10 points, ending at 2.863.70 (-2.3%), and the Russell 2000 marked a 5.4% drop, down 5.72 for the week to 100.85 at the close. Of the indices we include in this recap, the NASDAQ Composite is the only one that is up on a year-to-date basis (+0.5%), possibly due to its tech-heavy focus. For the past two weeks, it has been trading higher than its 12/31/2019 close. This week, the index lost only 106.76 points (-1.2%) ending at 9,014.56 on Friday.

The safe-haven seekers have returned to the precious metals as investors in China, and elsewhere, emboldened by weak economic data and more quantitative easing, have ramped up their bullion acquisitions. Front-month futures for gold, silver, platinum and palladium were all boosted by a similar wave: gold rose by $42.40 (+2.5%) to $1.756.30, silver increased by $17.07 (+8.2%), platinum gained $27.80 (+3.5%) to $817.10 and palladium firmed by $36.80 (+2.0%) to $1,857.90 per troy ounce. Base metals eased, as CME copper lost 7.55¢ (-3.1%) settling at $2.3305 per pound. LME aluminum ended the week at $1,462/ton, a decline of $23 (-1.5%).

WTI crude hit a six-week high, as futures rose 19.0% for the week, a $4.69 move to $29.43 per barrel. Brent futures closed at $32.50 for a one month high, up $1.53 (+4.9%) for the week. The strength was driven by OPEC export cuts of nearly 6 million barrels per day and stronger demand from China. Refined products also rose, as heating oil increased 152 points (+1.6%) to 0.9548, and gasoline gained 209 points (+2.2%) to 0.9838 at Friday’s close. Natural gas fell 9.7% as the cold forecasts faded into more of a seasonally normal spring temperature outlook in the gas-consuming regions. June futures ended the week at $1.646, down 177 ticks.

Wheat for July delivery lost 21¾¢ (-4.2%), closing at $5.00½ per bushel, while soybeans closed at $8.38½, down 12¢ (1.4%). Corn quietly moved sideways and remained unchanged, settling at $3.19¼ on Friday. Cocoa, nearly unchanged, settled at $2,399 in the July contract, slipping only $1/ton; while sugar squeaked out a 0.9% rise to 10.38¢ per pound. Coffee declined 4.3% (-4.8¢), closing at $1.0685 as this significant agricultural export of Brazil continues to be buffeted by a deflating currency, COVID-19 repercussions and related political turmoil. Although the pandemic stresses throughout the livestock and meatpacking industries, as well as in the food retailing businesses, have not improved, cattle and hogs seem to have parted ways, direction-wise: June live cattle futures increased 2.35¢ (+2.5%) to 97.000¢, while June hogs retreated 3.83¢ (-6.2%) to a closing price of 57.875¢ per pound.

The USDA began deploying the Farmers to Families Food Box Program, a $3 billion package aimed at fixing the crippled supply chain by re-routing it from family farms directly to communities in need. The program concentrates on fruits, vegetables, chicken, pork, and dairy products. CME milk futures moved sharply higher by 2.22¢, to close the week at 16.82¢ from the 14.4% rally.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, the 6th week in a row with an 848.6% net return. A. Masters climbed to 2nd with a return of 295%. Yuwen Cao pushed up to 3rd with a net return of 283.8%. Fernando Pineiro and Tim Hall rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 251.7% and 213.5% respectively.

In the Global Cup, Stefan Seibert climbed to the top with a net return of 207.8%, pushing Michael Cook down to 2nd with his 192.7% net return. Robert Miner moved up to 3rd at 161.1% with Maxim Schulz and Wayne Wan rounding out the top 5 with net returns of 137.1% and 86.6% respectively.

In the Forex division of the World Cup Trading Championships®, Raul Glavan finished the week holding onto first place with a net return of 95.7%, followed by Nicholas Ridley at 64.8% net. Adrian Koemel joined the leaderboard at 54.4% net, with WenChen Zhang and Scott Welsh rounding out the top 5 with net returns of 47.3% and 46.3% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – May 15, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – May 22, 2020

In the Markets

With 2.4 million new unemployment claims this week, bringing the total to 38.6 million since mid-March, this gauge of joblessness would look like a flattening curve on a graph. This aspect of the data contributed to investor confidence in the stock market. Another positive impetus for market participants was the news of progress in coronavirus vaccine development. Equities investors seem encouraged as the four indices we cover here are showing incremental increases. The DJIA booked a 3.3% rise of 779.74 points to close at 24,465.16 for the week. The S&P 500 added 91.75 points to end the week at 2,955.45 (+3.2%). An up move of 310.03 points to 9,324.59 for the NASDAQ Composite amounted to a 3.4% weekly gain. The percentage leader of the pack was the Russell 2000, adding 7.73 points (+7.7%) settling at 108.58 at the close. On Tuesday of this coming week, the closing bell will ring again, as the New York Stock Exchange reopens the trading floor after eight weeks of lockdown.

Although the precious metals generally nudged higher, the gold-to-silver ratio dipped back under 100 (to 1:98.1) for the first time since March 6th. Gold eased slightly, while the others in the group all firmed. June gold futures lost $20.80 last week, ending at $1,735.50 per ounce (-1.2%). Silver rose 62.3¢ (+3.6%) to $17.693 for the July contract. Platinum appreciated, adding $69.20 to close at $886.30 (+8.5%), and palladium’s $119.20 gain to $1,977.10 was a 6.4% improvement for the June futures.

Energy traders have had less volatility to manage thus far in May, as the global oil markets seem to be stabilizing again. The arbitrage premium of Brent crude over West Texas Intermediate is below $2 for the first time since the pandemic crisis began. Brent’s differential over WTI ended the week at a $1.88 premium; it had been a $4.35 spread at the end of February. The particulars for these legs are as follows: Brent closed the week at $35.13 compared to a settlement of $33.25 for WTI, and the weekly increases were $2.63 (+8.1%) and $3.73 (+12.6%), respectively. Another closely watched pair among energy traders is the “gas to heat” spread: the cents-per-gallon difference between RBOB gasoline and heating oil (aka ultra-low sulfur diesel). Back in late February, gasoline was 6 cents higher than heating oil. As the crude oil storage issue ballooned from the pandemic demand destruction, gasoline plunged to over 40 cents below heating oil. The relationship is now somewhat back to normal. July gasoline settled on Friday at $1.0518 versus $1.0198 for July heating oil, and the weekly gains for the two refined products were 6.8¢ (+6.9%) for the gasoline and 6.5¢ (+6.8%) for heating oil. The natural gas market is still in pre-cooling season mode. A non-weather fundamental concern is how attrition among non-profitable oil & gas drilling operations will re-shape the industry in North America. June natgas futures inched 8.5¢ higher (+5.2%) to a $1.731 close.

Agricultural commodity futures prices were quietly mixed across the board last week. July soybeans lost 5¼¢ to 8.33 ¼ (-0.6%), corn eased 1¼¢ to $3.18 (-0.4%) and wheat’s 8½¢ rally to $5.08¾ added 1.7% to the July contract. Coffee lost 3.0% with a 3.25¢ retreat to $1.036 per pound. Cocoa slipped $5 per ton, settling at $2,394 (-0.2%). Sugar’s week was one of subdued strength, staying above 10¢ again, yet far from the 15¢/lb. it traded in February. July futures closed at 10.93, up 0.55 (+5.3%). June cattle rose 0.700 (+0.7%) to 97.700, and the June hog contract firmed 1.5% to 58.770 from its 0.895 increase. Class III milk futures are enjoying a five-week rally off contract lows touched on April 22nd. July ended on Friday with a small loss from the previous week, down 0.38, at 16.44 (-2.3%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 7th week in a row with a 760.5% net return. Yuwen Cao took 2nd with a return of 302%. Fernando Pineiro moved to 3rd with a net return of 245.8%. Orhan Özcan and Tim Hall rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 205% and 194.5% respectively.

In the Global Cup, Stefan Seibert held the top with a net return of 208.8%, with Michael Cook in 2nd with a 186.7% net return. Maxim Schulz moved up to 3rd at 160.4% with Robert Miner and Wayne Wan rounding out the top 5 with net returns of 158.7% and 83.2% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan finished the week holding onto first place with a net return of 110.7%, followed by Nicholas Ridley at 82.6% net. Michael Campanale moved up to 3rd with a net return of 62.6%. Adrian Koemel and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 51.1% and 51.0% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – May 22, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – May 29, 2020

In the Markets

Restrictions have been easing in major US cities, and businesses are coming back, though worldwide coronavirus cases hit 6 million. On Thursday, the labor department reported 2.1 new jobless claims; one in every four American workers, more than 40 million, have filed for unemployment since the middle of March. Commenting on economic stimulus efforts during the pandemic, Fed chairman Jerome H. Powell said, “We crossed a lot of red lines, that had not been crossed before.”

The DJIA rose 3.8% this past week, a gain of 917.95 to close at 25,383.11 points. The Dow’s move for the month was 7.0%. The S&P 500 improved by 7.5% in May, with the lion’s share of the increase (3.0%) booked for the week, an up move of 88.86 that closed the index at 3,044.31 on Friday. This was the S&P’s first weekly close over 3,000 since February 21^st (3,337.75). NASDAQ’s Composite Index went up only slightly (1.8%) to 9,489.87 for the week, adding 165.28 points. Its May gain was 10.3%. 10.8% was the Russell 2000’s May increase, with 3.0% of it added in the week after a 3.25 advance left the index to settle at 111.83 on Friday. Market volatility continues to behave more like the “old normal” in terms of the CBOE VIX, ending the week at 27.51, the lowest Friday close since February 28^th. The U.S. Dollar Index, which has been in a holding pattern for nearly three months, finally poked through the floor of its sideways meandering on the chart. Friday’s 98.29 settlement of this trade-weighted index was the currency basket’s lowest close since March 6^th.

Silver, hitting a three-month high, has been outshining the others in the precious metal futures category, with a 19.8% rally for May. The July contract rose 81¢ last week to close at $18.499 (+4.6% for the week), the first Friday closing over $18 in 14 weeks. Gold lagged silver in the May run up showing a rise of merely 1.6%. The yellow metal’s Friday settlement for June was $1,736.90 after a $1.40 blip (+0.1%). Platinum and palladium futures both retreated: to $874.60 for the former and $1,972.90 for the latter. Their decreases were $11.70 (-1.3%) and $2.90 (-0.1%), respectively. Base metals that we track in this recap were treading water on either side of unchanged. Comex copper went out at $2.35/lb. (-1.5%), while LME aluminum closed the week 1.1% higher to close at $1,523 per metric ton.

WTI crude climbed 6.7%, continuing its rally to a 2-1/2 month high on a weaker dollar and a reduction in the U.S. rig count. The July crude had a $2.24 up move to $35.49 per barrel. Over on the ICE, July Brent only budged 20¢ to settle at $35.33 (+0.6%), just 16¢ below WTI’s settlement. RBOB’s premium over ULSD widened further during the week: July gasoline gained 109 ticks (+1.1%) versus heating oil’s 267-tick increase (+2.5%). The respective July settlements were 1.0307 and 1.0785 as the spread ended the week at 4.78¢ compared to last week’s difference of 3.20¢ per gallon. July natural gas made new contract lows on Friday, touching 1.763 before rallying on short covering to settle at 1.849: down 1.7% for the week, down 11.6% for the month and down 19.7% year-to-date.

The big three in the agricultural markets moved higher last week. Soybeans added 7 1/2¢ (0.9%) to go out at 840 3/4¢, corn had a 7 3/4¢ advance (+2.4%) to 325 3/4¢ and wheat improved 12¢ (+2.4%) to close at 520 3/4¢ per bushel. CME cattle firmed 2.02 (+2.1%) to 99.725 as hog futures retreated 1.92 (-3.3%) with a 56.850 close. Dairy traders kept the buying pressure on the price of milk, which gained 1.24 (+7.5%); the 17.66 close was the highest since February 18^th.

In the ICE softs, sugar closed at 10.91 (+0.2%), cocoa settled 2.5% higher at 2454 and cotton was practically unchanged for the week, adding only 2 points, taking it to 57.59 at Friday’s close. An arbitrage trade between the exchange’s two coffee markets has been gaining attention. The ICE US coffee, Arabica, is down 28.1% for the year, while the Robusta coffee, traded on ICE Europe, has declined 17.6% during the same time period. Usually, the difference between the two is largely driven by weather-based crop fundamentals affecting planting, growing and harvest. The pandemic has injected new factors for each side of the spread. Arabica July futures made new contract lows on Friday, closing below $1.00 per pound at 96.30 points (-7.0% for the week). Robusta closed at $1,169 per metric ton (-3.1% for the week). Robusta has been rallying from its contract low of six weeks ago (April 22^nd.).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 8th week in a row with a 890.8% net return. Yuwen Cao remained in 2nd with a net return of 298.4%. Fernando Pineiro moved up to 3rd with a net return of 276.1%. Tim Hall and Stefan Seibert rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 258.9% and 188.7% respectively.

In the Global Cup, Stefan Seibert held the top with a net return of 210.7%, with Michael Cook in 2nd with a 171.7% net return. Maxim Schulz moved up to 3rd at 156.2% with Robert Miner and Wayne Wan rounding out the top 5 with net returns of 134.4% and 113.2% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan finished the week holding onto first place with a net return of 112.6%, followed by Michael Campanale at 100% net. Nicholas Ridley is in 3rd with a net return of 78.3%. Adrian Koemel and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 54.4% and 54.1% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – May 29, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – June 5, 2020

In the Markets

On Thursday, the European Central Bank boosted its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program by €600 billion ($676 billion). This additional bond-buying stimulus brings the total to €1.35 trillion ($1.53 trillion), and the plan is being extended to June 2121. The euro soared to $1.135 on the news, a level that currency traders hadn’t seen since early March. Likewise, the Dollar Index, already in a downtrend for eight consecutive days, closed for the week at 96.95, descending closer to its bottom at 95.39 that was on March 9th. Stateside, the highlighted economic news of the week was centered on the labor department’s employment statistics: 2.5 million non-farm jobs returned in May. Wall Street expectations had averaged an 8.3 million decline. The 13.3% unemployment level was not as bad as the 19.5% expected, which triggered more bullishness for equities investors. Economists had also missed the mark for the Fed’s consumer credit numbers released on Friday. Borrowing declined in April by $68.8 billion. The analysts’ average estimate had been a $14 billion drop. The implication is that households continue to fret about the economic downturn resulting from the coronavirus pandemic.

At Friday’s opening bell, the DJIA index gapped up, and then traded with steady strength all day. The benchmark closed at 27,110.98 (+1,727.87) racking up a 6.8% rally for the week. It was the Dow’s highest close in fourteen weeks. The S&P 500 had a 4.9% jump for the weekly gain, ending at 3,193.93 (+149.62). Of the four stock indices covered in our recap, the NASDAQ Composite is the only one that is up for the year, so far. That year-to-date 9.4% increase was a direct result of the week’s shot of adrenalin. Adding 324.21 points, the composite had a +3.4% up move to 9,814.08 at Friday’s close. Rounding it out, the Russell 2000 booked an 8.1% increase of 9.03 points to its 120.86 final print. CBOE’s Volatility Index also showed a possible return to the no-fear zone. Ending the week at 24.52, the VIX had its lowest close since February 21st (17.08).

Metals marked the week going opposite ways as the precious sector retreated and the industrials advance. Gold futures lost $60.70 (-3.5%) with the front-month easing to $1,676.20 per troy ounce. July silver fell $1.02 (-5.5%) with its $17.479 settlement price. Platinum and palladium, both declined, but not in tandem percentages. Platinum declined $44.20 (-5.1%) to its $830.40 close, while palladium fell the least, perhaps due to its industrial usefulness; it ended the week at $1,952.60 (-1.0%) with a loss of $20.30 in the September contract. Copper surged 21 cents (+8.7%) to close at $2.5555 per pound, its highest since March 5th. LME aluminum had a good showing, as well. The 3-month price gained 68.5 dollars per ton, ending at $1,591.50 (+4.5%).

As talk of oil production cuts resumed, and tropical storm Cristobal loomed on the weather maps, WTI crude showed muscle, followed by Brent, each capping the week with similar gap-filling footprints on the charts. July crude settled at $39.55 per barrel with a $4.06 rally (+11.4%). August Brent crude’s 11.8% weekly gain was due

to a $4.46 rise to $42.30 per barrel. For both, Friday’s settlements were the highest since March 6th, just before the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war kicked in. Refined products followed suit as ULSD fuel rallied to $1.1506 with a 12 cent gain (+11.6%) and RBOB gasoline shot up 12.5% on a 13.5 cent move to $1.2136 per gallon at the close. Natural gas lost seven cents (-3.6%) last week, as it ended with a $1.782 close.

The weakening dollar is a significant factor in most agricultural commodity prices that are denominated in US dollars. In the case of futures, this means practically all of them. The CRB index has risen from 112.5 to 147.5 (+31.25%) since April 21st. Soybeans rose 27.0¢ last week (+3.2%) to close at $8.6775 per bushel. The July corn contract increased 5½¢ (+1.7%) to a $3.3125 settlement price. Wheat eased by 5½¢ (-1.1%) ending at $5.1525 for the week. In the ICE softs, the Europe vs. US coffee arbitrage kept widening as Robusta increased by 5.5%, while Arabica added only 2.7%, settling at $1,233 per metric ton and $98.90 per pound, respectively. Sugar jumped 10.2%, gaining 1.11¢ to close at 12.02 ¢/pound, its highest in three months. Cocoa had a slight decrease, ending Friday’s session at 2,398 (-2.3%) losing 56 points. Cotton rallied 4.20 (+7.3%) to 61.79 in the July contract. FCOJ settled at 127.55 after firming 5.05 (+4.1%). Milk added 99 points (+5.6), closing at 18.67 for the week. Meats retreated with hogs outpacing cattle. June hogs dropped 16.5% (-9.40 points) to a 47.450 close, while cattle ended at 93.900 in the Junes, with a 5.82 decline (-5.8%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 9th week in a row with a 1,003.7% net return. Tim Hall took the 2nd spot with a net return of 279.5%. Yuwen Cao moved down to 3rd with a net return of 263.8%. Stefan Seibert and Orhan Özcan rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 191.2% and 176.7% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley moved up to first at 153.1% with Raul Glavan finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 112.6%, followed by Scott Welsh at 63.3% net. Adrian Koemel and Jan Smolen rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 54.4% and 43.4% respectively.

Pending Audit, the Top 5 Global Cup Finalists are Stefan Seibert in 1st at 210.7% net, Michael Cook in 2nd at 171.7% net, Maxim Schulz in 3rd at 156.2%, Robert Miner in 4th at 134.4%, and Wayne Wan in 5th at 113.2% net.

The post Weekly Market Recap – June 5, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – June 12, 2020

In the Markets

The week for stock markets started off with a bang as the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday sessions took the NASDAQ Composite to three consecutive all time highs. By the end of the week, however, the exuberance was gone. Also, the NBER panel reported that the US had entered a recession in February, ending the longest expansion period on record. The Fed indicated that it is committed to continue stimulating the economy damaged by the coronavirus, and has no intention to raise interest rates through to 2022. The pandemic news included the increase of infection that totals more than 2 million confirmed cases and over 113,000 deaths, as both statistics are spiking in several states. New state unemployment claims fell by 1.5 million, indicating that the labor situation is getting worse at a slower rate.

The DJIA fell 1,505.44 (-5.6%), closing at 25,605.54 on Friday. The S&P 500 gave back 152.62 points, ending at 3,041.34 (-4.8%), and the Russell 2000 dropped 7.9% with a 9.53 loss for the week, taking it to 111.33 to at the close. The NASDAQ Composite is now the only one of the four indices we include in this recap that is ahead for the year (+6.9%). Its weekly close of 9,588.81 was due to its 225.27 decline (-2.3%). The sea change for equities traders is evident in the CBOE Volatility Index: it soared 47.2% from the previous Friday as the VIX jumped 11.57 points to 36.09 – its greatest one week move since the end of February when the crash began.

The yellow metal returned to its status as the leader the precious sector, as August gold rose by $61.10 (+3.6%) to $1,737.30 at Friday’s close. Silver squeaked out a $0.003 uptick to $17.482 that was statistically unchanged for the week. Platinum lost $11.40 (-1.4%) to $819.00 and palladium moved lower by $14.10 (-0.7%) to $1,938.50 per troy ounce. Base metals were slightly mixed, as CME copper gained 4.45¢ (+1.7%) settling at $2.6000 per pound. LME aluminum ended the week at $1,585/ton, a decline of $6.50 (-0.4%).

CME Crude oil prices booked their first negative week in two months as July WTI ended Friday’s session at $36.26, which was down $3.29 (-8.3%). In a similar move, ICE Brent declined 8.4%, losing $3.57 to settle at $38.73 per barrel. Refined products retreated, as well. July heating oil lost 4.92 cents to close at $1.1014 (-4.3%), while RBOB gasoline lost 8.94 cents, settling at $1.1243 (-7.4%). Natural gas hit contract lows on Wednesday ($1.674) bouncing a bit to end the week at $1.731 per MMBtu. The percentage move was a 2.9% loss for the week and a 24.8% loss year-to-date.

Agricultural commodities, although comprising only 24% of the S&P GSCI, are under much more duress than the metals and energy in the index. According to Goldman Sachs, the corn and sugar crop expectations are for unusually high production levels, even as pandemic related disruptions impact the demand forecasts. Soybeans rose 3½¢ last week (+0.4%) to close at $8.7125 per bushel. The July corn contract decreased 1¼¢ (-0.4%) to a $3.300 settlement price. Wheat dropped 13¼¢ (-2,6%) ending at $5.0200 for the week. The spread between the ICE coffee contracts has narrowed a bit: Robusta decreased by 4.2%, while Arabica eased 3.7%, settling at $1,181 per metric ton and $95.20 per pound, respectively. Sugar corrected, somewhat, dipping below 12¢, as July gave back 0.15 points (-1.2%), closing at 11.87¢/pound. Cocoa had a very slight decline, settling at 2,396 (-0.1%), off 2 points. Cotton lost 1.95 (-3.2%) to 59.84 in the July contract. FCOJ settled at 122.85 after retreating 4.70 (-3.7%). Milk was down 13 points (-0.7%), closing at 18.54 for the week. Livestock firmed as June hogs rose 1.3% (+0.60) to a 48.050 close, while cattle ended at 96.075 for June, with a 2.18 rise (+2.3%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 9th week in a row with a 778.1% net return. Tim Hall maintained the 2nd spot with a net return of 283.7%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 244.4%. Stefan Seibert and Stefano Serafini rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 189.9% and 181.6% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan moved up to first at 112% with Scott Welsh finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 63.1%, followed by Nicholas Ridley at 60.4% net. Adrian Koemel and Jan Smolen rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 47.6% and 46.9% respectively.

(Through May 29 – Final Results Pending Audit) The Top 5 Global Cup Finalists are Stefan Seibert in 1st at 210.7% net, Michael Cook in 2nd at 171.7% net, Maxim Schulz in 3rd at 156.2%, Robert Miner in 4th at 134.4%, and Wayne Wan in 5th at 113.2% net.

The post Weekly Market Recap – June 12, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – June 19, 2020

In the Markets

Recent data releases are giving investors signs that the reopening is stimulating the economy. Retail sales jumped 17.7% in May; the previous monthly change had been down 14.7%. Industrial production increased by 1.4% versus the negative 12.5% reported for April. 1.5 million jobless claims were filed, equal to the previous week’s figure. The national unemployment rate is now 13.3%, down from the 14.7% high in April, because 2 million people have returned to work. As for the US stock index group that we cover, all showed modest increases. The DJIA rose 265.92 for the week, ending at 25,871.46 (+1.0%); likewise, there was a 56.43 increase for the S&P 500 (+1.9%) closing on Friday at 3,097.74. NASDAQ’s composite index fared better, registering a weekly up move of 3.7% to 9,946.12, 357.31 higher, while the Russell 2000 scored a 2.52 advance to 113.85 (+2.3%). Volatility in equities has softened again; CBOE’s VIX eased last week to 35.12 for a 0.97 retreat of 2.7%.

Precious metal futures are moving sideways across the charts. Silver, which hit a three-month high a few weeks ago, seems to have lost its punch. It is still outshining the others, but in small increments. The July silver contract’s weekly move was +2.1%, rising 36½¢ to close at $17.847 on Friday. Gold continues to lag silver as it treads water, rising only 0.9% higher. August gold’s settlement was $1,753.00 after a $15.70 uptick. Platinum and palladium futures were mixed: the former closed at $827.30 while the latter ended the week at $1,908.40 per ounce. Their moves were +$8.30 (+1.0%) and -$30.10 (-1.6%), respectively. Base metals that we track in this recap maintained their hardly perceptible upward bias. CME copper went out at $2.6110/lb. (+0.4%), while LME aluminum closed the week 0.4% higher to close at $1,592.00 per metric ton.

The energy complex is still exhibiting unusual supply/demand anomalies. July WTI crude futures again tested the $40 level, but backed off to close at $39.75 per barrel, a $3.49 increase (+9.6%). Rising in tandem, Brent added $3.46 (+8.9%) to its price of $42.09 at settlement. Neither of them has filled the chart gap caused by the plunge in early March. As people and goods are moving again, and as businesses are more active, the refined petroleum products have continued to creep higher. ULSD fuel racked up a 10.0% increase for the week (+11.0¢/gallon), printing $1.2114 at the close. RBOB gasoline, which closed at $1.2716, is now 90% higher than it was on March 20th. By adding 14.73¢/gallon to its price for the week, it had rallied 13.1% from the previous Friday. Natural gas is also swimming in uncharted fundamentals, registering new contract lows last Tuesday. July natgas managed to ratchet up each day through to Friday. Its weekly drop was 3.6%, off 6.2 cents, closing at $1.669 per MMBtu.

In the agricultural product markets we cover, the week saw more red ink than green. July soybeans rose 5¼¢ last week (+5.2%) to close at $8.7650 per bushel. Corn increased 2½¢ (+0.8%) to $3.3250 at settlement. Wheat tumbled 20¾¢ (-4.1%) ending at $4.8125 for Friday’s close. ICE’s coffee contract differential tightened slightly: Robusta decreased by 3.0%, while Arabica slipped 1.5%, ending the week at $1,145 (down $36 per metric ton) and $0.9375 (down 1.45¢ per pound), respectively. Sugar crept up a bit, hovering below the 12¢ mark, as July added 3 ticks (+0.3%), closing at 11.90¢/pound. Cocoa declined 2.9%, settling $67 lower at $2,252 per ton. Cotton gained 1.72 (+2.9%) to 61.56 in the July contract. FCOJ settled at 119.05 after shedding 3.80 (-3.1%). Milk continued its strong rally to a new contract high, adding 2.64 (+14.2%), closing at 21.18 for the week. Milk futures are now 65% higher than the April low, when dairy farmers had no choice but to dump milk, due to the supply chain crisis caused by the pandemic. Livestock was mixed, as August hogs fell 3.4% (-1.85) to its 52.800 close, while cattle ended at 95.400 for August, inching up 0.075 (+0.0008%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 10th week in a row with a 705.9% net return. Tim Hall maintained the 2nd spot with a net return of 258.6%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 247%. Stefan Seibert and Orhan Özcan rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 216.4% and 166.1% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan held first at 109.5%, with Scott Welsh finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 72%, followed by Jan Smolen at 49.9% net. Adrian Koemel and JWenChen Zhang rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 47.6% and 46.1% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – June 19, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – June 26, 2020

In the Markets

After weeks of news stories dominated by better economic numbers and coverage of re-openings, along with the focus on developments surrounding the Black Lives Matter movement, the spotlight is on COVID-19 once again. On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal’s lead headline was “Virus Spread Accelerates Across U.S.” Also on Thursday, the Fed ordered banks to limit dividends and cease buybacks, warning that a lengthy downturn caused by the pandemic could burden them with distressed loans. The Labor Department reported that new jobless claims surpassed 1 million for the 14th consecutive week. New daily virus cases in the US increased to 44,726 as the week came to a close. For many investors, the spiking shape of the pandemic’s curve, no longer flattening, has become a proxy for the health of the the economy. Friday’s 25,015.55 DJIA close was its lowest since May 22nd. The weekly setback was 855.91 points (-3.3%). The S&P 500 lost 88.69 (-2.9%) trading 3,009.05 at the close. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 188.90 points (-1.9%); the final level of 9,757.22 is still in positive territory year-to-date (+8.7%). Of the indices we follow in our recap, the Russell 2000 is the weakest on the year, having lost 17.0%; its Friday settlement of 110.46 was off 3.0% for the week (-3.39 points).

London spot gold bullion traded at its highest price ($1,770.22) since October 1, 2012 ($1,780.50). August gold futures, ending the week at $1,780.30 (+1.6%), are up 15.6% for the year. Silver futures are unchanged for the year, as the front month futures settled at $18.035 per troy ounce (+1.1% for the week). Platinum declined $17.40 (-2.1%) to its $809.90 settlement, while palladium ended at $1,894.40 per ounce, easing $14.00 (-0.7%). Base metals continued firming slightly as copper rose 0.048 (+1.8%) to $2.659/lb. LME aluminum gained $9.50 (+0.6%) to $1,601.50 per metric ton.

Petroleum prices, in a steady uptrend since late April, are stalling a bit, as WTI declined $1.34 (-3.2%) settling at $38.49 for August delivery. Brent trailed off $1.17 for the week (-2.8%) ending the week at $41.02 per barrel. In terms of percentage, the products retreated more than the crude. July heating oil lost 6.2% from its $0.0751 loss, leaving it at $1.1363 on the close. RBOB gasoline fell 9.3% from the previous Friday, ending at $1.1533 from its loss of 11.83 cents per gallon. Natural gas futures for July have booked a string of seven new contract lows in the past two months. The week’s down move of $0.174 (-10.4%) printed a session low of $1.4320 before bouncing to its $1.4950 per MMBtu at the close.

In the ag sector, wheat ended the week at new contract lows, as July settled at $4.74 per bushel, down 7¼¢ (-1.5%). Corn, closing at $3.17 on Friday, lost 15½¢ (-4.7%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $8.65 after declining 11½¢ (-1.3%). Softs showed mixed action, with coffee coasting just above contract lows that were set last week. September futures were up 0.75 (+0.8%) from the previous Friday, and printed 96.65 at day’s end. Sugar is still bubbling under the 12¢ level, easing ½¢ (-4.1%) to its 11.55 settlement. Cocoa traced a two-day mini whipsaw, shooting up to 2,396 on Thursday, and then diving to 2,262 on Friday. For the week, it added 25 (+1.1%) closing at $2,277 per ton. For a moment, on Thursday, it looked as if July milk might be ending its bullish streak, but it recovered on Friday, keeping the upward channel intact on the chart. A 0.46 gain for the week (+2.2%) marked its 21.64 settlement, far above its 12.80 contract low two months ago. One additional instance of a contract low in our recap was in the livestock market on Friday. NASS released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report; and it showed record inventories. Gapping down more than 20¢ on the open, August hogs started the session at 48.975 and crashed to limit down (47.575). The market then worked its way up to 48.125 as the closing price. The weekly move was down 4.675 (-8.9%). Cattle fared much better, up 0.630 (+0.7%) for the week, registering 96.025 at settlement.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 11th week in a row with a 570.3% net return. Tim Hall held the 2nd spot with a net return of 308.7%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 245.7%. Stefan Seibert and Orhan Özcan rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 196.2% and 126.1% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan held first at 112.2%, with Scott Welsh finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 72.5%, followed by Robert Miner at 59.5% net. WenChen Zhang and Jan Smolen rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 50.6% and 47.7% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – June 26, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – July 2, 2020

In the Markets

After US employers added a record 4.8 million jobs in June, the national unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%. However, many states are reporting record increases in new Covid-19 cases and a growing death toll.

Our weekly recap includes a few noteworthy quarterly changes because the second quarter of 2020 ended on Wednesday. For the week, the DJIA rose 811.81 (+3.2%), closing at 25,827.36 on Thursday. The S&P 500 added 120.96 points, ending at 3,130.01 (+4.0%). The NASDAQ Composite, the only one of the four indices we cite that is up for the year (+13.8% YTD), closed at an all time high just before the three day holiday weekend; its weekly close of 10,207.63 was the result of its 450.41 advance (+4.6%); and the Russell 2000 gained 3.8% with a 4.22 increase for the week, taking it to 114.68 at the close.

The Q2 stats for these equities benchmarks were as follows: DJIA +17.8% (Q1 was -23.2%), S&P 500 +20.0% (coincidentally, it was down 20.0% in Q1), NASDAQ Composite +28.1% (Q1 had been -14.2%) and as for the Russell 2000, it rose 25.1% in Q2 (and had fallen by 30.8% in Q1).

Despite news about chaos in spot-to-futures spreads in precious metals, and rising physical deliveries for COMEX and NYMEX bullion contracts, there haven’t been any perceptible fireworks in the outright price movements lately. Silver futures have coasted sideways since making a three-and-a-half month high in early June. The September contract rose 15.4¢ last week to close at $18.322 (+0.8% for the week). August gold lagged silver, showing a rise of merely 0.5%; its Thursday settlement was $1,790.00 after adding $9.70 for the weekly change. Platinum and palladium futures both firmed: to $832.60 for the former and $1,927.60 for the latter. Their increases were $12.30 (+1.5%) and $33.20 (+1.8%), respectively. Base metals that we track in this recap have kept rising. COMEX copper went out at $2.7335/lb. (+2.85%), its highest weekly close since January 25th. LME aluminum closed the week 0.8% higher, $1,614 per metric ton at settlement.

Crude and product futures are also maintaining upward trends, though less constant than they showed in May and early June. August WTI is still toying with the $40 mark and poking in and out of the chart gap left by the March plunge, it closed at $40.65 per barrel, a $2.16 increase (+5.6%). In similar fashion, Brent added $2.21 (+5.4%), taking it to $43.14 at settlement. The economics of rising demand for refined products continue to support the futures prices. RBOB gasoline booked an 8.8% increase for the week (+10.23¢/gallon), printing $1.2592 at the close. Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel closed at $1.2311 and added 8.04¢/gallon to its price for the week, increasing 7.0% from the previous Friday. Natural gas has bounced from recent contract lows due to a heat wave and an unexpected inventory drop. August futures showed a weekly rise of 12.3%, up 19.0¢, closing at $1.734 per MMBtu.

The Q2 movement of the GSCI, the cash commodity index, was from 255.54 to 325.48 (+27.4%); it had fallen 41.4% in Q1 (from 436.21 to 255.54). Soybeans rallied 35½¢ last week (+4.1%) to close at $8.9675 per bushel. Corn rose 28¼¢ (+8.7%) to a $3.5350 settlement price. Wheat gained 16¼¢ (+3.4%) ending at $4.9200 for the week. In the ICE softs, the Europe vs. US coffee arbitrage is still gaining attention as Robusta increased by 4.0%, while Arabica added 6.8%, settling at $1,199 per metric ton and $1.0320 per pound, respectively. Sugar jumped 5.3%, gaining 0.62¢ to close at 12.24 ¢/pound. Cocoa decreased, ending Thursday’s session at 2,179 (-4.3%) losing 98 points. Livestock advanced with cattle outpacing hogs. August cattle rose 3.5% (+3.375) to a 99.40 close, while hogs ended at 49.200 with a 1.075 increase (2.2%), still not yet recovered from the previous week’s Hogs and Pigs Report.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 12th week in a row with a 549.1% net return. Orhan Özcan moved up to the 2nd spot with a net return of 250.6%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 224.5%. Stefan Seibert and Tim Hall rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 194.3% and 174.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan held first at 114.4%, with Luca Angelucci finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 85.5%, followed by Scott Welsh at 72.5% net. Robert Miner and Jan Smolen rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 63.9% and 58.2% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – July 2, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – July 10, 2020

In the Markets

Thursday’s labor department figures stated that 1.4 million Americans applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week and more than 19 million people are still receiving unemployment benefits. The Federal Reserve reported Wednesday that consumer borrowing declined by $18.3 billion in May, a drop of 5.3%. Borrowing had fallen 4.5% in March and then plunged 20.1% in April. That was the biggest one-month decline in percentage terms since the end of World War II. On Friday, another statement by the Fed reported it had purchased $1.3 billion in corporate bonds in late June. The program is intended to keep U.S. interest rates low. The Fed has also purchased nearly $8 billion in pools of bonds held in ETFs. New daily records in coronavirus cases have spiked in several states. Eight states set single-day coronavirus death records this week: Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and Tennessee.

Stocks maintained firmness during the week. The DJIA rose 247.94 (+1.0%), registering 26,075.30 as its Friday close; there was a 55.03 increase for the S&P 500 (+1.8%) closing at 3,185.04. NASDAQ’s composite index staged a 450.41 up move to 10,617.44 (+4.0%) as it continues making new record highs. The Russell 2000 weakened very slightly with a 4.22 decrease to 113.84 (-0.7%). Volatility in equities has eased a bit more as CBOE’s VIX ended at 27.29 for a 7.05 retreat of 1.4%. In the currency market, the dollar weakened, as the spot US Dollar Index ended at its lowest weekly close (96.65) since March 66th (96.09).

In commodities, the general trend remains up, according to S&P’s GSCI, which settled at 337.9 (+1.5%) having risen 5.05 from the prior week. Metals are rising across the board. CME copper added 5.4%, closing at $2.8975/lb., its highest of the year. The coronavirus spreading in Chile, the world’s leading copper-producing nation, has been slowing mine activity for months. LME three-month aluminum gained 4.6%, ending the week at $1,688.50 per metric ton, the highest it has been since March 10th. In the precious sector, investors continue to acquire bullion. Front-month futures for gold, silver, platinum and palladium all moved on the plus side: gold rose by $11.90 (+0.7%) to $1,801.90, silver increased by 17¢, to $19.053 (+4.0%), platinum gained $14.30 (+1.7%) to $845.90 and palladium firmed by $66.80 (+3.5%) to $1,994.40 per troy ounce.

On the charts, the petroleum complex is maintaining its upward trend, although the slope appears to be somewhat lessened. CME crude oil prices booked a slight decrease as August WTI ended Friday’s session at $40.55, which was down only a dime (-0.2%). On the other hand, ICE Brent for September squeaked 10¢ higher (+0.2%) to settle at $43.24 per barrel. Refined products inched up, as well. One gallon of August heating oil gained a penny to close at $1.2412 (+0.8%), while RBOB gasoline gained 2.39¢ cents, settling at $1.12831 (+1.9%). August natural gas, two weeks after hitting contract lows on two consecutive days, is 30¢ higher than those lows. Friday’s $1.805 settlement was up 7.1¢ per MMBtu (+4.1%).
Wheat was the star percentage performer of the week in the agricultural commodity sector. CBT wheat for September delivery rallied 8.5% with a 34¢ move to $5.34 per bushel. December corn declined 9¾¢ (-2.8%) to $3.43¾
as it corrected its rally from contract lows two Fridays ago. November soybeans had a 6¢ decrease (-0.7%) to an $8.90¾ settlement price. Soft commodities were mostly lower as the ICE’s coffee contract fell 6.3% to $0.9665/lb., sugar slipped 3.9% to its 11.78¢/lb. close, and cocoa eased $19 (-0.9%), settling at $2,160 per metric ton. Cotton futures improved by 2.2%, as the December contract closed at 64.31¢ per pound. Dairy farmers are still having a bull market in milk futures. The weekly price increase was 1.47 (+7.8%) to 20.28¢ in the September milk. As has been the case for months, pandemic economics are driving the new normal in the livestock and meatpacking industries. Cattle rose 0.6%, while hogs firmed 1.4%, closing at $1.000 and $0.49875 per pound, respectively.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 13th week in a row with a 542.7% net return. Orhan Özcan held the 2nd spot with a net return of 281.9%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 209.4%. Tim Hall and Stefan Seibert rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 207.6% and 189.5% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan held first at 111.5%, with Jan Smolen finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 72.1%, followed by Robert Miner at 68.7% net. Scott Welsh and Tom Dante rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 65.4% and 45.2% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – July 10, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – July 17, 2020

In the Markets

This past week, the Department of Commerce report showed that retail sales rose 7.5% in June; this was largely attributed to online consumer purchasing of summer clothing. Another major factor was that Americans were returning to re-opened restaurants. According to the Fed’s report, June industrial production showed the largest percent increase (+5.4%) since 1959. In context though, February and March saw the greatest drops in factory output since World War II. Actual numbers were well below their normal pre-pandemic levels. The Department of Labor reported that 1.3million people filed for first-time unemployment benefits; which was the 17th straight week that the unemployment claims filing number exceeded 1 million.

For the first time in five weeks, the NASDAQ Composite, one of the four stock indices we follow in this recap, underperformed the other three in their weekly movements. It lost 1.1% (down 114.25) to settle at 10.503.19 on Friday. The S&P 500 added 1.2% from its 39.69 point rise to 3,224.73 at the close. The 596.65 rally to 26,671.95 for the DJIA boosted the index by 2.3% for the week. Percentage-wise, the Russell 2000 fared best with its 4.36 advance (+3.8%) to 118.20 at week’s end. However, when measured on a year-to-date basis, the NASDAQ Composite remains the only one of the group that is in positive territory (+17.1%). The CBOE Volatility index marked its lowest close in six weeks, with its 25.68 close on Friday. In global currency markets, the US dollar continues to be under pressure, as the spot index saw its lowest weekly close (96.01) since January 28th, 2020 (95.61). Regarding the commodity segment of the financial markets, the S&P GSCI was statistically unchanged (-0.1%) losing 0.45 with its 337.45 final value.

Precious metals keep inching higher, with silver outpacing gold. The spot bullion gold-to-silver ratio is at its lowest level (93.6) since February 27th (91.3), prior to its meteoric rise in March, when the all-time high of 123.5 was reached on the 19th. In futures, gold gained slightly adding $8.10 last week, ending at $1,810.00 per ounce (+0.4%). Silver rose 63.2¢ (+3.3%) to $19.685 in the September contract. Platinum ticked up $3.70 to close at $849.60 (+0.4%), and palladium’s $77.30 gain to $2,071.70 was a 3.9% increase. The base metals were flat, to down, for the week. The two we track here, diverged, as CME copper gained 0.7¢ (+0.2%) settling at $2.9045 per pound, and LME aluminum ended the week at $1,661.50/ton, a decline of $27.00 (-1.6%).

Oil prices barely budged, with WTI futures adding a mere $0.04 for the week, a +0.1% increase to $40.59 per barrel. Brent futures closed at $43.14 on Friday, down $0.10 (-0.2%) for the week. Refined products eased, as heating oil decreased 221 points (-1.8%) to 1.2191, and gasoline lost 586 points (-4.62%) to 1.2245 at the close. Some analysts consider gasoline’s demand drop to be a result of many states shifting into reverse on their reopening course. Lately, the weather has been the main driver for natural gas. Now, the heatwave is “in the market”. On the charts, Friday’s $1.718 natgas price has dropped 50% of the range from the recent high ($1.924 on July 7th) and the contract low ($1.517 on June 25th/26th). The current price is 4.8% lower than the prior week.

The grains and oilseeds were mixed. Corn’s $3.39¾ settlement was a loss of 4.00¢ per bushel (-1.2%), soybeans rose 4.25¢ (+0.5%) to its $8.95 close and wheat added 0.1%, settling at $5.34¾, up ¾¢. Coffee has finally bounced out of its doldrums as September Robusta futures soared last week to $1,293 per ton (+8.0%) and Arabica jumped 5.8% ending at $1.0230/pound in Friday’s session. Sugar slid a bit after traders failed to hit the 12¢ mark again, as October eased 3 ticks (-0.3%), closing at 11.73¢ per pound. Cocoa was unchanged (0.0%), settling at $2,160 as it did a week ago. Cotton declined 2.37 (-3.7%) to 61.94 in the December contract. Milk retreated 30 points (-1.5%), closing at 19.98 for the week. Livestock strengthened, as August hogs advanced 5.9% (+2.925) to its 52.800 close, while cattle ended at 103.275 for August, rising 3.275 (+3.3%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 14th week in a row with a 496.4% net return. Orhan Özcan held the 2nd spot with a net return of 284.5%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 209.9%. Stefan Seibert and Stefano Serafini rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 186.5% and 166.3% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan held first at 112.3%, with Jan Smolen finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 71.3%, followed by Scott Welsh at 58.8% net. Robert Miner and Adrian Koemel rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 52.8% and 44.8% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – July 17, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – July 24, 2020

In the Markets

The week started with the European Union agreeing to a €1.6 trillion pandemic recovery strategy based on the sale of hundreds of billions of common debt. On Wednesday, the US abruptly ordered China to close its consulate in Houston, resulting from accusations of espionage. Filings for weekly unemployment benefits are on the rise again. The recovery has been negatively affected as states have rolled back their re-openings. US Department of Labor data releases over the past months indicate 21 million American jobs were cut in March and April, but only 7.5 million new jobs were created by re-openings in May and June. The housing market rebounded in June, as low mortgage rates helped boost the sale of previously owned homes up 20.7% from May. California surpassed New York for the most confirmed coronavirus cases in the country; nationwide, deaths from COVID-19 now exceed 1,000 per day.

The DJIA fell 202.06 from the previous week (-0.86%), closing at 26,469.89 on Friday. The S&P 500 gave back 9.10 points, ending at 3,215.63 (-0.3%), and the Russell 2000 dropped 0.4% with a 0.47 decrease for the week, taking it to 117.73 to at the close. The NASDAQ Composite opened on Tuesday at a new all-time intra-day high (10,839.93), then slipped lower with the other equities benchmarks for the remainder of the week. It’s Friday close of 10,363.18 was due to easing 140.01 (-1.3%). The VIX showed the first weekly volatility uptick since June 12th. The currency basket comprising the US Dollar Index continued its downtrend, falling 1.67 (-1.7%) to 94.34 at the close: the lowest the index has been in 22 months (September 2018). S&P’s GSCI maintained its strength, marching to the drum of the falling dollar. The commodity price portfolio rose 4.55 (+1.3%) to 342.00 at the close, its highest end-of-week settlement since March 6th.

Gold, a significant component of the GSCI, made a record move on Friday. Thriving on the weak dollar, spot bullion traded above $1,900 for the first time since September 2011, and the London pm fixing hit a new historic highpoint: $1,902.10 per Troy ounce. COMEX gold futures for August had a weekly gain of $87.50 (+4.8%) to $1,897.50 at Friday’s close. Silver buying has been more vigorous than gold lately, as the September contract rose 16.1% during the week, adding $3.17 per ounce. The closing price of $22.850 was still far from its $40 levels during the 2011 gold market milestone. The other metals in the precious category went along for the ride, as well, but without any conspicuous records. Platinum rallied $106.40 (+12.5%) to $956.00 and palladium moved higher by $222.40 (+10.7%) to $2,294.10 per ounce. Base metals were mixed, as copper eased 1.2¢ (-0.4%) settling at $2.8925 per pound. Aluminum ended the week at $1,700/ton, an increase of $38.50 (+2.3%).

Crude and product futures have also been bolstered by dollar weakness, maintaining upward trends, though somewhat flatter on the charts than a couple of months ago. August WTI had its highest Friday close since early March, ending the week at $41.96 per barrel, a $1.37 increase (+3.4%). Brent added only $0.20 (+0.5%), taking it to $43.34 at settlement. RBOB gasoline had a 4.9% increase for the week (+6.03¢/gallon), printing $1.2848 at the close. Heating oil settled at $1.2563 and added 3.72¢/gallon to its price for the week, increasing 3.1% from the previous Friday. Natural gas traders are still taking cues from heatwave forecasts. August futures showed a weekly rise of 5.2%, up 9.0¢, closing at $1.808 per MMBtu.

Soybeans rose 4¼ ¢ last week (+0.5%) to close at $8.99¼ per bushel. Corn fell 4¢ (-1.4%) to a $3.35 settlement price. Wheat gained ¾¢ (+0.9%) ending at $4.39½ for the week. In the ICE softs, the Europe vs. US coffee arbitrage is still in play as Robusta increased by 5.0%, while Arabica added 6.0%, settling at $1,358 per metric ton and $1.0840 per pound, respectively. Sugar declined 2.0%, losing 0.03¢ to close at 11.49¢ per pound. Cocoa firmed, ending Friday’s session at 2,224 (+3.0%) adding 64 points. Livestock was mixed with hogs outpacing cattle. August hogs rose 2.3% (+1.200) to a 54.00 close, while cattle ended at 101.325 with a 1.950 decrease (-1.9%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 15th week in a row with a 487% net return. Orhan Özcan held the 2nd spot with a net return of 288.5%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 211%. Stefan Seibert and Tim Hall rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 199.3% and 196.3% respectively.

In the Forex division, Raul Glavan held first at 106.8%, with Jan Smolen finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 101%, followed by Nicholas Ridley at 97.9% net. Patrick Nill and Scott Welsh rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 72.4% and 47.1% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Jan Smolen has taken first with a net return of 39.2%, with Stefan Seibert following closely at 39.1%. 3rd place is currently held by M. Vontobel (Tirutrade AG) with a net return of 27.8%. Tobias Baerlin and Wayne Wan are in 4th and 5th at 21% and 18.7% respectively.

The post Weekly Market Recap – July 24, 2020 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.

Weekly Market Recap – July 31, 2020

In the Markets

According to a Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) release on Thursday, the US economy contracted at a record rate of 32.9% in the second quarter of 2020. The weekly jobless report showed another increase, with 1.43 million Americans filing new claims. On Friday, Fitch announced a lowered outlook for its US government credit rating to “negative” from “stable” due to higher budget deficits. Also on Friday, BEA reported that consumer spending rose 5.6% in June. Congress is starting to hammer out the next round of pandemic stimulus programs as the brink of income crisis looms over 25 million unemployed workers.

Equities investors maintained their confidence, despite the historic GDP plunge. Although the DJIA was down for the week, the other three indices we cover in this recap were in the plus column. The DJIA booked a 0.2% decrease of 41.57 points to close at 26,428.32 for the week. The S&P added 55.49 points to end the week at 3,271.12 (+1.7%). An up move of 382.09 points to 10,745.27 for the NASDAQ Composite amounted to a 3.7% weekly gain. The Russell 2000, adding 1.09 points (+0.9%), settled at 118.82 on the close. CBOE’s VIX eased 1.38 as the volatility benchmark softened to 24.46 (-5.3%). Still falling for six consecutive weeks, the US Dollar Index ended down 0.89 points, to settle at 93.45 (-0.9%), the lowest that the index has closed in over two years (92.55 on May 7th, 2018). S&P’s GSCI declined 0.6% to 339.82 (-2.18) on Friday.

The yellow metal kept up a steady pace, heading for the $2,000 target, as gold futures rose $60.70 (+3.2%), and ended the week at $1,985.90 in the December contract. Silver rallied $1.37 (+6.0%) closing at $24.216 on Friday. Platinum lost $37.10 (-3.9%) to $918.90 and palladium moved lower by $148.80 (-6.5%) to $2,145.30 per troy ounce. Base metals were slightly mixed, as CME copper retreated 2.45¢ (-0.8%) settling at $2.8680 per pound. LME aluminum ended the week at $1,713.50/ton, a gain of $13.50 (+6.2%).

Energy futures ended July with weekly setbacks, as September WTI closed at $40.27, which was down $1.02 (-2.5%). ICE Brent eased 0.6%, losing $0.26 to settle at $43.52 per barrel. Refined products retreated, as well. Heating oil lost 3.92 cents to close at $1.2171 (-3.1%), while RBOB gasoline lost 9.77 cents, settling at $1.1871 (-7.6%). Natural gas traders took a breather from the heat wave hype, selling the Septembers down to end the week at $1.799 per MMBtu. The percentage move was a 3.6% loss for the week and a 22.4% loss year-to-date.

In the ag sector, the most actively traded markets declined from the prior Friday’s levels. Wheat settled at $5.31¼ per bushel, down 8¼¢ (-1.5%). Corn, with its $3.27 close, lost 8¢ (-2.4%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $8.92½ after declining 6¾¢ (-0.8%). Softs showed strength, mostly on the back of the weakening US dollar, with coffee up 10.55 to 118.95 (+9.7%) from the previous Friday. Sugar popped over the 12¢ level, rallying 1.15¢ (+10.0%) to its 12.64 settlement. Cocoa, for the week, added $176 (+7.9%), closing at $2,400 per ton. December cotton advanced 2.56¢ (+4.3%) to its 62.66 settlement price. Livestock was mixed, as cattle futures advanced 1.500 (+1.5%) to a 102.825 close, while hogs ended at 52.000 for August, losing 2.000 (-3.7%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 16th week in a row with a 471.7% net return. Orhan Özcan held the 2nd spot with a net return of 287.2%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 229%. Stefan Seibert and Stefano Serafini rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 195.7% and 177.8% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley claimed the top spot with a 171.4% return. Raul Glavan moved down to 2nd at 104.7%, with Jan Smolen finishing the week in 3rd with a net return of 103.5%. Patrick Nill and Sergey Shirko rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 72.4% and 64% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Adrian Koemel has taken first with a net return of 63.9%, with Stefan Seibert following in 2nd at 39.2%. 3rd place is currently held by Jan Smolen with a net return of 34.4%. Tobias Baerlin and M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG are in 4th and 5th at 31.9% and 29.9% respectively.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 7, 2020

In the Markets

US employers added 1.8 million jobs in July. The unemployment rate decreased to 10.2%. The new jobless benefit filings for the prior week fell to 1.2 million claims. Less than half of the job loss caused by the pandemic has been recovered. Congress made no progress in talks on a new stimulus package. The US number of positive COVID-19 tests approached 5 million, and the nationwide death toll hit the 161,000 mark before the weekend. The University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluations projected 300,000 US coronavirus fatalities by December 1st.

Lead by strength in the tech sector, stocks across the board showed steady gains throughout the week. The DJIA rose 1,005.16 (+3.8%) registering 27,433.48 as its Friday close; there was an 80.16 increase for the S&P 500 (+2.5%) closing at 3,351.28. NASDAQ’s composite index staged a 265.71 up move to 11,010.98 (+2.5%), as it continued making new record highs. The Russell 2000 surged with a 7.06 increase to 125.88 (+5.9%). Volatility in equities has eased considerably as CBOE’s VIX ended at 22.21 for a 2.25 retreat of 9.2%, the lowest weekly close since February 21st (17.08). In currency markets, the dollar weakened again, evidenced by the spot US Dollar Index, which ended at its lowest weekly close (93.39) since May 2018.

The broad up-trend in commodities is staying on course as the S&P GSCI rose 5.33 (+1.6%) to the 345.15 level, its highest weekly close in five months. The Trump administration announced the re-imposition of a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminum. On the LME, aluminum three-month forwards jumped 57.50 per ton (+3.4%), closing at 1,771.00 on Friday. CME copper took a dive after Codelco, the Chilean state run mining company, announced it would resume operations that were halted by the coronavirus in March. September futures fell to 2.7925, down 7.55¢ (-2.6%). Precious metals are in the spotlight again: futures for gold, silver, platinum and palladium all moved on the plus side: gold rose by $42.10 (+2.1%) to $2,028.00, silver increased by $3.32, to $27.540 (+13.7%), platinum gained $51.50 (+5.6%) to $970.40 and palladium firmed by $31.30 (+1.5%) to $2,176.60 per troy ounce.

On the energy futures charts, the crude and refined products are coasting sideways. CME crude oil prices rose, with September WTI ending Friday’s session at $41.22, which was up 95¢ (+2.4%). ICE Brent for October gained 88¢ (+2.0%) to settle at $44.40 per barrel. Products were mixed. Heating oil barely budged, adding 0.41¢ to close at its, settling at $1.2199 (-0.3%). RBOB gasoline rallied 3.65¢ (+3,1%), ending the week at $1.2076 per gallon. Natural gas, six weeks after making contract lows, has risen more than 60¢ from those lows (+40%). For the week, September natgas soared to a $2.238 settlement, up 43.9¢ per MMBtu (+24.4%).

In the ag sector, corn ended the week plunging into new contract lows, as December settled at $320¾¢ per bushel, down 6¼¢ (-1.9%). Soybeans, closing at $8.67½¢ on Friday, lost 25¢ (-2.8%) for the week. Wheat has now given back 75% of its July gains, having slipped in each day of the week, going out on Friday at $4.95½¢ for a weekly decline of 35¾¢ (-6.7%). Coffee broke its recent up-trend line on Friday, rendering the week’s move a 2.9% drop to a 115.45 close. Sugar printed its highest prices since March 10, but sold off on Friday, leaving the week’s net result a mere 3-tick improvement (+0.03%) with its 12.67 settlement. Cocoa is maintaining its strength, bolstered by the cheap US dollar, and by dry crop conditions in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. September futures rallied up to 2,546 on Friday, adding 146 to the price (+6.1%).

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 17th week in a row with a 479.7% net return. Orhan Özcan held the 2nd spot with a net return of 280.8%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 216.4%. Stefano Serafini and Stefan Seibert rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 197.1% and 193.7% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley claimed the top spot with a 225.3% return. Jan Smolen moved up to 2nd at 127.8%, with Sergey Shirko finishing the week in 3rd with a net return of 118.2%. Raul Glavan and Patrick Nill rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 105.3% and 72.4% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Wayne Wan moved up to first with a net return of 96.5%, with Adrian Koemel following in 2nd at 62.8%. 3rd place is currently held by Jan Smolen with a net return of 52.7%. M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG and Stefan Seibert finished the week in 4th and 5th at 48.5% and 34.9% respectively.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 14, 2020

In the Markets

The US unemployment claims figure came in at less than one million (963,000) for the first time in 21 weeks. Core retail sales rose 1.9%, which was higher than the 1.2% expectation; sales at stores and restaurants have now risen for three straight months after plunging in March and April. On Wednesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that Q2 economic output fell by 20.4% from the first quarter, the worst recession since record keeping began in 1955. This GDP contraction was more than twice the size of the US decline of 9.5% during the same period. Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his choice of Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate.

The DJIA rose 497.54 from the previous week (+1.8%), closing at 27,931.02 on Friday. The S&P 500 added 21.57 points, ending at 3,372.85 (+0.6%), and the Russell 2000 increased 0.5% with a 0.65, taking it to 126.53 at the close. The NASDAQ Composite, for a change, did not make a new all time high during the week, but held its ground with the other equities benchmarks. It’s Friday close of 11,019.30 was due to ticking up only 8.32 (+0.1%). The VIX slipped slightly with a 0.16 decline (-0.7%) ending at 22.05 for the week. The US Dollar Index continued its downtrend, falling 0.30 (-0.3%) to 93.09 on Friday.

On Tuesday, in reaction to Russia’s positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front, safety-minded bondholders began selling, and a spike in Treasury yields followed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed 6 basis points to 0.6407% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 8 basis points to 1.3252%. CME Treasury futures tumbled. The September 30 year T-Bond contract went from 181 to 179 that day, and ended the week at 177-27, which was its lowest weekly close since June 19th (177-09). This kicked off a wave of US dollar strength and liquidation of precious metal positions. The sharp sell-off in gold and silver was exacerbated by margin call selling that resulted in Comex gold futures having the steepest one-day dollar decline since April 15th, 2013. After the abrupt correction, the precious sector recovered in the following days. The week’s metal activity included gold futures losing $78.20 (-3.9%), ending at $1,949.80 per troy ounce. Silver dropped $1.45 (-5.3%) to its $26.089 settlement price. Platinum and palladium, both declined, but not as sharply as gold and silver. The former eased $11.30 (-1.2%) to its $959.10 close, while the latter retreated to $2,143.80 (-1.5%) with a loss of $32.80 in the September contract. The base metals that we cover in our recap were mixed. Copper firmed 6.65¢ (+2.4%) to close at $2.8590 per pound. LME aluminum for 3-month delivery slipped $25.00 dollars per ton, ending at $1,746.00 (-1.4%).

Energy futures climbed across the board by varying degrees for the week. August WTI closed at $42.01 per barrel, a $0.79 increase (+1.9%). Brent added $0.40 (+0.9%), taking it to $44.80 at settlement. RBOB gasoline booked a 3.1% increase (+3.70¢/gallon), printing $1.2446 at the close. Heating oil settled at $1.2367 by adding 1.68¢/gallon to its price, increasing 1.4% from the previous Friday. Natural gas futures ended at $2.356 per MMBtu, the highest end-of-week close in three and a half months. September contracts advanced 11.8cents for the week (+5.3%). The surge on Friday stemmed from higher than normal temperature forecasts for the Western US and Canada. Bulls were also encouraged by statistics on higher export demand and weakening production.

S&P’s GSCI sustained its steady strength, gaining 7.02 (+2.0%) to 352.17 at the close, its highest end-of-week settlement since March 6th (366.59). Rising prices dominated the agricultural sector. Soybeans rallied 31¼¢ last week (+3.6%) to close at $8.98¾ per bushel. Corn climbed 17¼¢ (+5.4%) to a $3.38 settlement price. Wheat increased 4½¢ (+0.9%) ending at $5.00 for the week. In the ICE softs, the Europe vs. US coffee arbitrage is unwinding, as Robusta advanced by 3.7%, while Arabica retreated by 0.6%, settling at $1,445 per metric ton and $1.1470 per pound, respectively. Sugar jumped 3.4%, gaining 0.43¢ to close at 13.10¢/pound. Cocoa slid lower, ending Friday’s session at 2,436 (-4.3%) losing 110 points. Cotton rose 0.49 (+0.8%) to 62.85 in the December contract. Livestock improved with hogs outpacing cattle. October hogs rose 4.0% (+2.045) to a 53.020 close, while cattle ended at 110.230 with a 3.770 increase (3.5%). Milk added 0.65 (+4.0%), closing at 16.88 for the week. The star performer was lumber. Although not in the S&P GSCI, and with minimal futures volume, lumber’s price reached an all time high on Friday, $726.50 per 1,000 board feet, up $78.50 (+12.1%), with an 80.0% increase year-to-date. The COVID-19 era has spawned a building boom in the US, spurred by low interest rates.

World Cup Trading Championships®

In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 18th week in a row with a 464.4% net return. Stephan Seibert moved up to 2nd with a net return of 241.2%. Orhan Özcan moved to 3rd with a net return of 216.9%. Yuwen Cao and Stefano Serafini rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 210.9% and 178.3% respectively.

In the Forex division, Nicholas Ridley remained in the top spot with a 225.3% return. Jan Smolen held 2nd at 122.9%, with Sergey Shirko finishing the week in 3rd with a net return of 118.2%. Raul Glavan and Patrick Nill rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 120.1% and 72.4% respectively.

In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Wayne Wan moved held first with a net return of 73.3%, with Adrian Koemel following in 2nd at 65.5%. 3rd place is currently held by Stefan Seibert with a net return of 56.2%. Jan Smolen and M. Vontobel of Tirutrade AG finished the week in 4th and 5th at 48.9% and 39.2% respectively.

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