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Weekly Market Recap – January 17, 2025

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WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – JANUARY 17, 2025

After a sluggish start to the week, U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday and Friday, pushing the major indexes to weekly gains of 2% to 4%. This marked only the second positive week in the past six for the S&P 500, which ended Friday less than 2% below its record high from December 6.

Yields on U.S. government debt declined, retreating from their highest levels in over 14 months and halting a surge that began last September. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at approximately 4.61% on Friday, down from 4.77% the previous week.

Earnings reports from major U.S. banks exceeded lofty market expectations, with three institutions reporting that their fourth-quarter earnings more than doubled compared to a year earlier. Ahead of earnings season, analysts had projected nearly 40% growth in financial sector earnings—the highest forecast among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, according to FactSet.

Stocks gained further and bond yields fell on Wednesday after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated a cooling in inflationary pressures. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in December—slightly below November’s rate and economists’ expectations of 3.3%.

U.S. retail sales rose by 0.4% in December, falling short of economists’ forecast of 0.6%. However, the report offered a bright spot as November’s previously reported 0.7% sales increase was revised upward to 0.8%.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter, surpassing economists’ expectations and improving from 4.6% in the third quarter. For the full year 2024, China’s economy expanded by 5.0%, meeting the government’s growth target.

In contrast, Germany’s economy contracted for the second consecutive year, with GDP shrinking by 0.2% in 2024 following a 0.3% decline in 2023. The downturn was driven by sluggish consumer spending and intense competition facing the country’s automotive industry.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

Report Period Actual Previous
NFIB optimism index Dec. 105.1 101.7
Producer price index Dec. 0.2% 0.4%
Core PPI Dec. 0.1% 0.1%
PPI year over year 3.3% 3.0%
Core PPI year over year 3.3% 3.5%
Monthly U.S. federal budget Dec. -$87B -$129B
Consumer price index Dec. 0.4% 0.3%
CPI year over year 2.9% 2.7%
Core CPI Dec. 0.2% 0.3%
Core CPI year over year 3.2% 3.3%
Empire State manufacturing survey Jan. -12.6 2.1
Initial jobless claims Jan. 11 217,000 203,000
U.S. retail sales Dec. 0.4% 0.8%
Retail sales minus autos Dec. 0.4% 0.2%
Import price index Dec. 0.1% 0.1%
Import price index minus fuel Dec. 0.1% 0.1%
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey Jan. 44.3 -10.9
Business inventories Nov. 0.10% 0.0%
Home builder confidence index Jan. 47 46
Housing starts Dec. 1.5 million 1.29 million
Building permits Dec. 1.48 million 1.53 million
Industrial production Dec. 0.9% 0.2%
Capacity utilization Dec. 77.6% 77.0%

Closing Prices for the Week

Contract Close
Dow Jones Industrials Average 43,487.83
Nasdaq Composite 19,630.20
S&P 500 Index 5,996.66
CBOE Volatility Index 15.97
S&P GSCI 577.95
U.S. Dollar Index 109.347
10-Year T-Note (Mar ’25) 108-175
Crude Oil WTI (Mar ’25) 77.39
Natural Gas (Mar ’25) 3.479
Gold (Feb ’25) 2,748.7
Silver (Mar ’25) 31.141
Corn (Mar ’25) 484-2
Wheat (Mar ’25) 538-6
Soybean (Mar ’25) 1034-0
Coffee (Mar ’25) 328.35
Sugar #11 (Mar ’25) 18.22
Cocoa (Mar ’25) 11,173

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The post Weekly Market Recap – January 17, 2025 appeared first on World Cup Trading Championships.


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