WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – OCTOBER 11, 2024

The S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ climbed more than 1%, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains and continuing their recovery from a sharp drop in early September. The S&P 500 and Dow reached new record highs, while the NASDAQ finished less than 2% below its all-time peak.

Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose for the fourth straight week as a monthly inflation report led investors to adjust their expectations for future interest-rate cuts. The 10-year yield closed at 4.08% on Friday, up from 3.98% the prior week and significantly higher than the recent low of 3.62% on September 16.

Earnings season ramped up on Friday, with two major U.S. banks reporting third-quarter results that pushed their shares higher. Analysts expect overall earnings for S&P 500 companies to grow by an average of 4.1% for the quarter, according to FactSet.

A Consumer Price Index report came in slightly above expectations, adding uncertainty around the pace of future interest-rate cuts. Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 2.4% in September, down from 2.5% in August but slightly above the 2.3% forecast. Core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, rose to 3.3%, up from 3.2% the previous month.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, released Wednesday, revealed a lively debate over the half-percentage-point rate cut that was ultimately approved. Some policymakers favored a smaller quarter-point cut, though only one of the 12 voting members dissented in the final vote.

Consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined for the first time in three months. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index recorded a preliminary reading of 68.9 for October, down from 70.1 in September. Economists had anticipated a slight increase.

Companies in the S&P 500 increased their stock buybacks to nearly $878 billion for the 12 months ending in June 2024, an 8% rise from the previous year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. However, buybacks in the second quarter of 2024 were down 0.4% compared to the first quarter.

A report on U.S. retail sales, due Thursday, will reveal whether the recent upward trend continued in September. Last month, the Commerce Department reported a 0.1% increase in August sales and revised July’s gain to 1.1% from the previously estimated 1.0%.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

Report	Period	Actual	Previous
Consumer credit	August	$8.9B	$26.6B
NFIB optimism index	Sept.	91.5	91.2
U.S. trade deficit	Aug.	-$70.4B	-$78.9B
Wholesale inventories	Aug.	0.1%	0.2%
Initial jobless claims	Oct. 5	258,000	225,000
Consumer price index	Sept.	0.2%	0.2%
Core CPI	Sept.	0.3%	0.3%
CPI year over year		2.4%	2.5%
Core CPI year over year		3.3%	3.2%
Producer price index	Sept.	0.0%	0.2%
Core PPI	Sept.	0.1%	0.2%
PPI year over year		1.8%	1.9%
Core PPI year over year		3.2%	3.3%
Consumer sentiment (prelim)	Oct.	68.9	70.1

Closing Prices for the Week

Contract	Close
Dow Jones Industrials Average	42,863.86
Nasdaq Composite	18,342.94
S&P 500 Index	5,815.03
CBOE Volatility Index	20.46
S&P GSCI	559.64
U.S. Dollar Index	102.890
10-Year T-Note (Dec ’24)	112-080
Crude Oil WTI (Nov ’24)	75.56
Natural Gas (Nov ’24)	2.632
Gold (Dec ’24)	2,676.3
Silver (Dec ’24)	31.755
Corn (Dec ’24)	415-6
Wheat (Dec ’24)	599-0
Soybean (Nov ’24)	1005-4
Coffee (Dec ’24)	252.05
Sugar #11 (Mar ’25)	22.24
Cocoa (Dec ’24)	7,739