Weekly Market Recap – November 24, 2023

U.S. stock indexes notched their fourth consecutive weekly climb, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow securing gains of approximately 1% in a week shortened by the holiday. Throughout this positive four-week span, the S&P 500 marked an impressive nearly 11% increase.

As the end of 2023 approaches, U.S. growth stocks maintained a substantial performance advantage over their value-style counterparts, a notable reversal from 2022 when value surpassed growth. By Friday, a U.S. large-cap growth index showed a year-to-date total return surge of 36.7%, while its value-style counterpart recorded a mere 4.8% return.

With nearly all third-quarter results accounted for by Friday, companies in the S&P 500 are anticipated to unveil an average earnings gain of 4.3% compared to the same quarter a year earlier, according to the latest FactSet data. This marks the first quarter of positive earnings growth since the third quarter of 2022.

The Cboe Volatility Index, tracking investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility, experienced its fifth consecutive weekly decline. As of Friday, the VIX was trading around 42% below a recent peak on October 20, maintaining a similar decline throughout the year.

U.S. existing home sales in October plummeted by 14.6% compared to the same month a year ago, reaching the lowest total in 13 years. Elevated interest rates led economists to anticipate that 2023’s existing home sales could hit their lowest point since 2011.

The release of minutes from the most recent U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting on Tuesday indicated that officials showed no inclination to commence interest rate cuts in the near future. There was a unanimous agreement among members that Fed policies should remain “restrictive” until compelling data emerges, signaling a convincing trend toward inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target.

As of Black Friday, the unofficial kickoff of the U.S. holiday shopping season, the short-term outlook for U.S. retail sales was mixed. The National Retail Federation forecasted a 3.0% to 4.0% rise in holiday spending during November and December compared to last year, a growth rate lower than the 5.4% recorded in the previous year.

The upcoming Wednesday’s update on U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to be a focal point, as it represents the second estimate of third-quarter growth. The initial estimate, released in late October, surpassed expectations, indicating an annual growth rate of 4.9%, a significant uptick from the 2.1% figure reported in this year’s second quarter.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

Closing Prices for the Week

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